"My guess is somewhere in the 3500 to 4500 range."

Just to elaborate further. Let's assume there are 245 events right now, a 30% RRR in 3-point MACE and work with a range of 3500 to 4500 patient years. Event rate is for first occurence of 3-point MACE, not including any subsequent MACE events in the same patient. The median dosing period in BETonMACE is likely going to be cloe to 24 months. So just double the event rates below to get the approximate % event rates at the approximate median dosing period of 2 years (this is likely what will be reported). With the below guesstimates at 30% RRR, this would give absolute risk reductions in the range of 3.27% to 4.20%. This would equate to NNTs in the range of 24 to 31 over 2 years. In comparison, Vascepa for 3-point MACE in REDUCE-IT achieved an absolute risk reduction of 3.6% and an NNT of 28, but this was at median dosing of 4.9 years. 

3500 patient years: Overall event rate 7.00 per 100 patient years (placebo 8.05, apabetalone 5.95)

4000 pateint years: Overall event rate 6.13 per 100 patient years (placebo 7.04, apabetalone 5.21)

4500 patient years: Overall event rate 5.44 per 100 patient years (placebo 6.26, apabetalone 4.63)

BearDownAZ