Hi Lost Soul,

I understand what you're trying to do with your 7 in decay rate, but you're overshooting the decrease in patient years accumulation.

In a realist scenario, there are still 2000 patients in the trial. 2000/12 = 166 patient years per month.

A good starting point in June 2018 would be 2200 patients/12 = 183 patients years per month.

Finally, maybe we could put a buffer on tundup's 2400 accumulated patient years before June. You never know!

Anyway, tick tock!