NBB, that's a big part of my "tea leaves" confidence as well. It's tough feeling like a "mushroom" with so much on the line, especially as reality comes closer. With so much cost involved with getting through P3, and getting a drug/device from conception to market commercialization, I am still surprised that there was no "checkpoint" FA to assess ongoing risks, cuts losses, and re-circle the wagons if necessary to protect sunk investments and costs. Surprised that it wasn't "demanded" by those continually putting money into the coffers. Again, that is either "dumb" on the part of multiple people whose heads could roll ... or "supreme confidence" (to me), from a risk/benefits ratio. I don't think it is realistic to simply be that dumb with multiple diverse interests and parties, given the level of intellect in the science and investors? ... just hope that is the case.

There are going to be a lot of nervous people waiting, once P3 completes, and the clock starts really ticking on the data. I don't discount conspiracy theories either, money can make people crazy.

Personally speaking, I don't expect a huge pps move when P3 completion is announced, unless it spurs an itchy trigger finger or two among the BP's playing a game of chicken ... who will blink first? Pre-data? Or post-data? Who wants the best "deal" and is willing to take on some risk & uncertainty to potentially lose a few billion versus "steal" $20+ billion (potentially)? ... even if they wait for some data and the price goes up, there could still be a "good" deal depending on what the outlook is like for other indications? .... so I think it is immensely GOOD for all of us that the sub-trials are occuring also, not just for the longer run values, but for deal making possibilities NOW, assuming reasonably good data in the sub-groups plus 3000 more molecules in the closet.

It's just a "crazy game of financial chicken" ... still really puzzles me though that there isn't more "hype" and overt "talk" about this trial (that does "bother" me a little, for my counter concern) ... all assuming data is good, but all heck could break loose soon.

I will leave the science to Bear (way over my head), and the market technical stuff to GAC ... but I hope the flag/wedge forming represents latent pressure to jump and some BIG itchy trigger fingers!! 

I am literally going to be out of my mind for a few months, once the clock starts ticking on the data ... and I get nervous standing over a 2 foot putt for a buck haha ...... 

But the science seems great, the markets are massive, the bigger investors and largest share holders seem confident ... as Bear would say "tick tock" ...