I am having trouble determining the right position size for this stock. Partly I believe because I a having troble estimating the odds of success.  I think the previous results are encouraging but they are post hoc, anyone have a method of quantifying this further or thoughts on this.

The other encouraging evidence appears to be anecdotal such as management being confident, long drawn out trial so odds of success (although statistically does not count for much), financial support from another well financed company (they must have done their due diligence, hence reason for optimism). Am I missing anything here which would impact their odds of success. TIA