We've had some exciting news in April and early May.....

April 1st was news about financing of about $15 million CDN, April 18th the announcement of reaching 250 events, and most recently Thursday May 2nd's news about the Third Eye Loan being extended into August.  And the market's reaction has been positive, going from $3.30 and therabouts to our current level trading above $4.  

Now I think the question begs....is there the potential for any more news before top-line comes out?  Might there be more financing news before trial top-line results are annouced? 

The last raise of $15.1 million would have netted the company about $7.5 million assuming half the proceeds went toward paying down the Third Eye loan.....so where are we?  

According to the most recent MD&A cash was at $6.5 million...it doesn't say whether that is CDN or USD but I'm going to assume its USD because of the covenant that required (at that time) a cash balance of $5 million USD, $6.5 million CDN is only about $4.8 million CDN which would have put the company in violation of that covenant by my read, and I received an email a month of so back saying that the company at all times had been in compliance with that covenant. 

I'll put the burn rate at $2.5 million USD...a slight drop of the MD&A disclosed $2.583 million USD for the last 3 months ending Jan 31st.  So Feb/Mar/Apr would have meant burning through about $7.5 million USD.  

I'm working this out as I write....

So $6.5 million ao Jan 31st.  On that same day they annouced raising $5 million USD from HL....so half of that is $2.5 million.  Then the $5.65 from the $11.3 million USD raised announced April 1st.  

So $6.5 + $2.5 + $5.65 = $14.65 million, minus the burn of about $7.5 million....that leaves about $7.15 million USD as May started as my best guess.  And the new terms on the loan extension reduced the cash on hand requirement to $3 million USD.....Bottom line, by my estimate here we're probably at around $4 million USD before we hit up against the $3 million loan covenant....

My question now is about burn rate.  I'm assuming that all these last study visits, post follow up IP visits, visits or calls to those who dropped out...and anything else involved before DBL, I believe its reasonable to assume that there could be at least some increase to the cash burn. 

So in terms of news I think another raise....I think there's a good chance we see some news on that front before Top-Line.  Beyond that.....I'm wondering if we're going to be headed into a long quiet period....maybe more than a month without any news?  Hopefully we get some more analyst coverage beyone Wijma, Zacks and Roth....a Beacon type surprise would be nice.

Random late Sunday thoughts...it helps me work through my thinking.