What we know and what we don't.....
posted on
May 16, 2019 12:19PM
Lots of speculation based on what we know so far.....but still too many unanswered questions. The big unknown of course is top-line results, but long before they're announced we'll get some answers about what happened yesterday.
We know that there's a market offering priced at $4 per unit with each unit comprising 1 share and 1 full warrant priced at $4.60....but we don't know the size of the offering...500K units, one million....ten? Its being conducted on a "best efforts basis" which I take to mean that ultimately it "could" end up being zero.....supposedly we'll know sometime in and around May 30th, but that's a forward looking statement in the PR so we can't rely on it.
We knoiw that over 1.35 million shares traded yesterday, the most in over 5 years of trading here, and the PPS got hammered to the tune of ~25%. We don't know how much of that was shareholder selling versus short selling....the short number will be updated Wednesday. Once we know the updated short # through to May 15th, we will also be able to see if RVX starts showing up on the TSX Buy-In list for delivery failures...and we all know what those forced Buy-Ins did for the PPS last summer.
My opinion is that yesterday's sell off was the result of fear based selling due to substantial short selling into the share offering news. Once the dust settles I like the chances for the PPS to triple off these lows in short order like they did last year when the company proposed an offering and then withdrew it, going from ~1.30 to over $4 between April and September......only difference is this time, if it happens, I don't see it taking that long because time is compressed now by the expectation of top-line results sometime around 3 months from now.
I wish I'd bought more last April/May when that blue light was flashing, but of course hindsight is 20/20......