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Message: Some fun with numbers....

Nobody has a crystal ball or an infallible 8 ball, to say nothing of a time machine....but let's just assume for the sake of argument that when BETonMACE gives its results that it is door #1 that is the one that is opened.  RRR of MACE of 30% or more, and equally good results for CKD and Cognition....

If that happens, what is a reasonable Market Cap for Resverlogix?  I'm gonna take a stab and say $10 billion USD....$5 billion based on MACE, and another $5 billion for potential in CKD and Cognition.  Is that out to lunch?  Maybe...but I think its at least in the ball park.

Right now our Market Cap is pretty much bang on $500 million USD, that's with a CAD PPS of $3.37 right now.  So a 10 fold increase in the market cap would take those shares to $33.70....but that's based of about 200 million shares, so let's add in some dilution to account for warrant conversions and share offerings to raise cash and up that by 25% to 250 million shares....taking 25% off the PPS to bring it down to about $25.  

Now....let's further assume that retail schmos own about 10,000,000 shares combined.  Right now those 10 million shares are worth about $33.7million....but at $25 they would be worth $250 million....that's quite the diffence.  

And if things do work out like this (as we're all hoping) then that might just be the start....who knows what other indications Apabetalone might prove effective with.  And then of course there's the whole Star Maker factory scenario that SF has envisioned.  If Resverlogix is able to successfully develop Apabetalone through to FDA approval.....then I see validation coming from the market, it would no longer be an obscure company and I don't doubt for a second that in this hypothetical that they'd be able to raise more than enough money to start developing other compounds they've identified.  

Somone with 10,000 shares now worth $33K or so....if things were to play out this way, in another few months they'd be worth $250K, with the potential to climb even higher....perhaps much much higher.

If you were trying to acquire shares on the open market....would you point out the possibilites I just envisioned?  Or would you be more prone to look at the apparently weak financial position, the shoddy way the company presents itself....point out that in the past year or so Resverlogix has gone from having a loan come due that required the company to tap its largest shareholder, which resulted in the company having to declare itself in financial hardship in order to get the needed financing....a hardship exemption that resulted in a mandatory de-listing review by the TSX.  Then another loan is taken out with terms even more onerous than the original Citi-Bank loan by my reckoning....with covenants in place requiring minimum cash balances, top-line results by specified dates....

Man oh man we shareholders have been through a lot just in the past year or so.....the only time things were worse I imagine is when Assure had "seemed to" fail.  

Anyway that's enough...all jm(not always so)ho as always.

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