Re: Hedge Knight Capital Discussion
in response to
by
posted on
May 26, 2019 04:01PM
LoL....my little seekingalpha posts are grade school compared to HKC's report, I often bang them out in an hour or two. I don't have the background in either science or statistics (and with BETonMACE proper analysis requires a blending of the two I would argue) to engage in that kind of in dept postulating.
Generalizations, over simplifications and other criticisms aside...that report, what I was able to glean from it....it has me realizing that I (and others I believe) have been focusing in on the trees while ignoring the vast CVD/Inflamatory forest.
Take this financing for instance, like many others I've been expending considerable mental energy in trying to guess at the potential ramifications....Will it be withdrawn or go forward? If it goes through will those participating be dumping the shares to hold the warrants? If they do start dumping will they wait to see if the PPS gets up around $4 before selling in order to have 'free' warrants?
This B&B share offering is simply a tree, and a decent sized tree I would submit with lots of branches....but still, its just one tree in a very large forest.
Same with short interest, my personal fixation.....another tree, and I would submit that its one that can be used to push the PPS around. But still its just another tree.
The forest is the mind blowing potential for Apabetalone if BETonMACE succeeds....especially if it succeeds in both the primary and secondary endpoints. To extend the metaphor, Apabetalone then becomes a forest of giant redwoods....and one that can only get bigger with all the other indications that could be added on, Fabry's, PAH, Freidrich's Ataxia, HIV, neurodengenerative and on and on and on....
All these individual trees, the share offering, short interest, HL's financings....in my constantly emerging view they only have significance if BETonMACE fails. Reading HKC's report, in particular about the design of the trial and the wisdom of targetting a very specific and very sick patient population....loading the deck in favor of success so to speak.....I'm starting to view the forest more and the trees less.