Re: Buyout?......
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 02, 2019 01:41PM
I think a few words of caution are in order here.
First, we are assuming of course that topline is what we hope it will be. The market will give us important hints...IMHO. In other words, if the share price starts inching up on anticipation, I would view that as a very positive sign...naturally, markets can be wrong...but there is no reason for this stock to start slip sliding backwards. A share price that starts slip sliding down would be a bad omen, in my books.
Second, note that Zenith captures a lot of upside from Apabetalone. So any buyer would have to write 2 checks...as shareholders in RVX, we should be aware that we will cut back accordingly.
Third, and this where BearAZ/Fenix/BFW etc. can shed light on...if the immediate indications are for patients with only low HDL, Diabetes and MACE as a starting point, won't that ding us in early sales? Sure, off label use will eventually catch up, but that is some years away still. Accordingly, the valuations arrived at, by any buyer, may differ considerably from what we are assuming. That is why I favor the $30 target put by Makalu...a US$5 to 6 billion valuation sounds like a fair price to me. The buyer will make out like a bandit, but there is a lot of work to get there.