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Message: Current Prices for shares and warrants

The share price is around $2.80 and the warrants recently issued are around $1.1.  Let me discuss at least 3 different ways to view them.

1. People paid $4 for the units.  Those are now priced at $2.8+$1.1=$3.90.  So slightly underwater. 

2. People are selling the shares they got in the units for $2.8 and turning around and buying twice as many warrants (priced at $1.1).  The only problem is that the volumes on the warrants have dried up...so not sure how many you can now buy at $1.1. 

3. Fundamentally speaking, the warrants break even at $1.1+4.6=$5.7 (leaving aside time value issues with warrant valuations).  That is 2 times the current share price.  That suggests that the shares are the way to go, particularly as the warrants are hardly trading now.    

 

The question is how to view the current valuations.  Clearly, the shares are the cheapest on a fundamental basis.  However, if you want to own as many shares as an option to maximize your upside if Phase 3 is as good as we all believe, then buying ever more warrants is the right strategy.

 

Any thoughts? 

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