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Message: Probability of Phase 3 trial success

Hello, 

   My first post here. 
   I want to know how likely a Phase 3 trial will succeed based on historical data. This latest study suggests some pretty high probabilities:
   1. For all drugs: 59% (all indications), 70% (lead indications) - See "Table 1." in the article.
   2. Cardiovascular group: 62.2% (all indications), 72.3% (lead indications) - See "Table 2." in the article. 

   Note the cited study is one with the most data collected:

"Using a sample of 406 038 entries of clinical trial data for over 21 143 compounds from January 1, 2000 to October 31, 2015".

   So I anticipate BETonMACE should also produce pretty good results. 
   Considering this remarks (Bold is mine) made by CEO when Phase 3 started, I am feeling quite optimistic. 

"Select BET inhibition has been observed in our past Phase 2 studies to reduce MACE over short duration of treatment of up to 26 weeks. We will now test the hypothesis that longer treatment of RVX-208, "apabetalone" in a larger number of high-risk vascular patients will improve multiple risk pathways and as a consequence hopefully reduce MACE."

 

Anyone else thinking otherwise?  
 

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