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Message: Probability of Phase 3 trial success

Search: 30456728

Event rate placebo group of 86,000 patients is close to 9% without any bump higher from a recent event , ultra low Hdl, SomaScan risk biomarkers, etc . etc.. There are only a very small % on GLP or SGLT in BOM, so much so that that could only move the needle lower  by 0.2 % or so using their known efficacy rates. I believe BOM average event rate has been disclosed at around 7% and continuing declining over time from initally 8%. The average of 7% could mean 9% at the least and 5% or less for placebo and on drug respectively. The recent 250 events after appox. 4000 patient years suggest the average is well into the 6%’s .This is only my opinion from public data and I am not giving any advice. Others will disagree and may well be correct, I have no idea.

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