@BearDownAZ, thank you for the welcome message. 
I understand there is no 100% thing until the real data is revealed. What I'm looking for is a trend or probabilities, which I think is useful in helping me make investment decisions. 

I’m actually thinking, if we have an AI (artificial intelligence) powered software app that can predict the success rates of trials, the studies I cited and the one that @Topcoin mentioned, the patient numbers and event counts etc. in the news releases (also in the posts) will all be used as inputs to train the AI network. The final outcomes will be probabilities (say 80.23%, or may be 5% event rate in the controlled group) that we can use or interpret based on our investment needs.

Since I don’t have such an app, could we use our brains to come up with those probabilities? :)

 Am I too crazy to think in that direction?