Re: Win or lose....one thing we know for sure
posted on
Aug 31, 2019 12:22PM
A pair of original condition Stingray's is more our style. It's fun to dream about the material things you can do with a home run. I've had a few so far in my life but it's been a while since the last one.
It seems that with more than 3600 patient years and more than 250 events that we could meet statistical significance at a lower number than 30%RRR. There will be no statistical penalty for having a futility analysis as we never had one. The company has, rightly or wrongly attempted to give us the best odds of passing this trial with statistical significance. 9 DSMB reports with no safety or efficacy issues. It took longer than expected to get 250 events. There has been an enormous amount of effort, in RVX terms, talking about the sub studies of CKD and vascular dementia. Why would they do that unless they saw a good reason to? It would have been easy to say nothing at all about the dementia sub study as there has been somewhere in the neighbourhood of a 99.5% failure rate on all previous Alzheimer's trials. Something has peeked the interest of the investigators or this kind of effort would not be being made. We are going to find out soon!
Everyone here deserves to see the home run we could have from door #1 but as bfw says there is still a lot of value in doors 4 & 5. Doors 4 & 5 may bring a share consolidation with it but we could live to see another day. Although not the preferred outcome, I could definitely see doubling my position if doors 4 or 5 is where we ended up. It's worked out pretty good since 2013 so far by dramatically increasing my position at that time.
Keep dreaming ya all I think the odds are in our favour. Cars, boats, houses, vacations, it's your dream, make it a good one.
All IMO, dyodd.
tada