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Message: Expectations

I have been in this stock for over 12 years now, and I know some of the board have been in even longer.

I remember how the share price used to ramp into TLD. And how it got crushed as high expectations were dashed.

This is such a different situation. As I read it, it doesn’t look like anyone new is going to come in now. Why would they? This is a totally new drug, and the science is complex. The due diligence takes months. 

I like this set up of muted expectations (and experience has taught me to be cautious when the opposite is the case). 

This is such a tightly held stock the first day upside potential is significant if TLD is positive. And I actually think the downside case is not as bad as some might fear. I think Don would likely be forced to sell in the event of a TLD miss and I think BP would still pay several hundred million for this novel science platform now that it is better recognised in academic journals and there are hundreds of years of patient data and the fact the molecule appears to be well tolerated.

clearly this is pure speculation on my part but i’d be interested to know if any of you shared this view.

We’ll all find out one way or another soon enough. One thing is for certain - a new chapter of my life is about to begin - the wait for RVX has been a constant factor in my life for 12 years. Whether or not TLD is good or bad it will force a change in perception on my part. 

Peace

Tundup

 

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