Volume predicctions? How many will trade after we get TL news?
posted on
Sep 23, 2019 09:08PM
We had ~375K trading today inclusive of all exchanges and platfroms, including OTC trading, but not Frankfurt. Just on the Canadian side we've now had 6 consecutive days with volume over 200K, which is the longest period of sustained trading at this level in over 3 months.
Because there really isn't anything really new to chew over I was occupying my RVX fixation by considering volume. We already knew about the AHA news Friday thanks to Bear's eagle eye, and DBL was something we were all expecting, today's PR merely gave confirmation.
I was looking at AMRN's volume after their news came out, on Sept 24th...an almost insane 163 million according to Yahoo finance, and over 106 million on Sept 25th. If my memory hasn't failed me again, back then Amarin had around 290 million shares outstanding...so in two days the volume traded was almost equivilant to all the shares issued.
It caused me to wonder what kind of volume we might see....whether they annouce meeting the primary endpoint or not I expect there to be a huge jump. Prior to Sept 24th it looks to me like AMRN was trading in and around 3-5 million most days. If 5 million was the average that's an increase of 32X to get to 160 million. If we round today's volume up to 400K and multiply it by 32 that would put us at close to 13 million...which is still only about 6% of the roughly 209 million outstanding here.
My own guess is 20 million, including all Canadian platforms and OTC trading combined. Obviously its not apples to apples as RVX doesn't have a Nasdaq listing, but not everyone completely avoids the OTC obviously.
Thoughts?