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Message: What we know and what we don't...speculation of the highest order
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We have two baskets, one for those things we can say with certainty, and the other for those things which are open to specuation.  The "certainty" basket is thimble sized when compared to the basket for those things we are left to speculate on.

We know the trial failed to meet the primary endpoint....everything else about the trial is specualtion.  RRR for crestor versus lipitor, eGFR and MOCA data, along with all the other biomarkets being studied.

Let the choir shout out:  "Thanks Captain obvious".  

Of course there are some other things that we do know.  We know how RVX/RVXCF has traded since the news came out Monday morning ahead of the opening bell.  

-We know that Monday the PPS opened at 54 cents and traded as low as 34 and a half Canadians pennies, a massive drop from Friday's close of $2.18 CDN.  We also know that closing price on Monday was $0.67 CDN on total volume across all platforms of ~4.3 million. Add in the roughly 1.3 million shares trading OTC in the U.S. and that brings the grand total to about 5.6 million total.

-We know that Tuesday the PPS opened at 68 cents CDN (also the day's low) and traded as high as 97 centavos before closing at  $0.87 CDN.  The volume was ~1.6 million in Canada with another ~0.3 million volume OTC for a total of around 1.9 million shares trading in total.  

-Finally we know that Wednesday the PPS opened at $0.95 CDN and that it traded as high as $1.32 before closing at $1.25 CDN.  Voumes totals in Canada were about 1.1 million plus another 0.3 million OTC for a grand total of 1.4 million shares trading back and forth.  

The Canadian trading I get from stockwatch here:  https://www.stockwatch.com/Quote/Detail.aspx?snapshot=SX&symbol=RVX&region=C

Why did RVX drop from $2.18 on Friday to as low as $.0345 on Monday?  I think we all agree the reason is that a big black swan flew in with the news on the primary outcome not being met.  

Why has the PPS climbed back from the $0.345 cent low with the PPS now sitting at $1.25?  That's a tougher question to answer, any ideas as to the reason or reasons belong squarely in the basket of things we don't know.  Some have suggested its short covering, others have posted that they've been buying in hopes of some positive news coming out.  I've seen speculation that perhaps some big players, (possibly Chinese) has been scooping up shares.  Bottom line is nobody knows....we're all just guessing.  

I know I've just posted things that everyone already knows...but it helps me organize my thinking after playing some pick-up basketball tonight and wrecking my achilles....I'll probably be on crutches tomorrow, I had been planning to play golf oh well.

I will include something that I'm assuming some do not know, and that is the house positions for the MON/TUES/WED trading:  

House Positions for C:RVX from 20190930 to 20191002
House Bought $Val Ave Sold $Val Ave Net $Net
53 Morgan Stanley 266,689 206,847 0.776 71,800 58,351 0.813 194,889 -148,496
65 Goldman 150,000 72,319 0.482 0   150,000 -72,319
9 BMO Nesbitt 388,817 267,797 0.689 277,851 197,927 0.712 110,966 -69,870
33 Canaccord 128,963 98,381 0.763 30,000 16,189 0.54 98,963 -82,192
19 Desjardins 367,017 268,592 0.732 301,517 233,696 0.775 65,500 -34,896
89 Raymond James 68,620 55,927 0.815 10,800 8,536 0.79 57,820 -47,391
124 Questrade 115,030 81,828 0.711 77,174 62,519 0.81 37,856 -19,309
99 Jitney 642,000 498,182 0.776 618,200 505,629 0.818 23,800 7,447
88 Credential 31,739 31,810 1.002 9,614 9,004 0.937 22,125 -22,806
83 Mackie 20,000 10,800 0.54 0   20,000 -10,800
7 TD Sec 1,420,470 1,117,058 0.786 1,411,053 1,185,978 0.84 9,417 68,920
143 Pershing 62,900 50,457 0.802 54,400 29,831 0.548 8,500 -20,626
57 Interactive 33,362 27,087 0.812 30,270 22,082 0.73 3,092 -5,005
36 Latimer 29,810 28,581 0.959 26,946 27,557 1.023 2,864 -1,024
14 ITG 2,500 1,975 0.79 0   2,500 -1,975
5 Penson 7,810 7,847 1.005 7,661 7,328 0.957 149 -519
39 Merrill Lynch 4,000 3,200 0.80 4,000 4,950 1.238 0 1,750
62 Haywood 4,000 4,240 1.06 4,000 4,235 1.059 0 -5
15 UBS 0   1,260 1,020 0.81 -1,260 1,020
18 Echelon 24,700 11,467 0.464 26,200 25,236 0.963 -1,500 13,769
48 Laurentian 2,200 836 0.38 4,000 3,460 0.865 -1,800 2,624
56 Edward Jones 0   3,000 2,520 0.84 -3,000 2,520
2 RBC 765,150 665,876 0.87 773,624 627,426 0.811 -8,474 -38,450
28 BBS 26,749 18,053 0.675 36,879 23,597 0.64 -10,130 5,544
76 Industrial Alliance 5,050 4,577 0.906 20,117 16,079 0.799 -15,067 11,502
13 Instinet 141,000 125,613 0.891 158,749 140,919 0.888 -17,749 15,306
59 PI 17,574 11,926 0.679 35,530 18,859 0.531 -17,956 6,933
94 Hampton 0   23,768 20,856 0.877 -23,768 20,856
80 National Bank 99,720 81,191 0.814 140,726 97,847 0.695 -41,006 16,656
22 Fidelity 0   54,389 38,634 0.71 -54,389 38,634
68 Leede 0   61,000 51,970 0.852 -61,000 51,970
79 CIBC 781,240 631,006 0.808 877,440 666,758 0.76 -96,200 35,752
85 Scotia 567,219 439,027 0.774 742,331 538,597 0.726 -175,112 99,570
1 Anonymous 1,518,842 1,226,126 0.807 1,798,872 1,401,039 0.779 -280,030 174,913
TOTAL 7,693,171 6,048,626 0.786 7,693,171 6,048,629 0.786 0 3

 

Cheers all....loving the rebound of course, but also expecting that at some point it will have to take a break, and perhaps break back down.  With that being said the longer this rally goes on the better...unless you're short.  

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