Re: Success or Failure?
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 06, 2019 01:39AM
Thanks very much BDZ...your answer is somewhat reassuring. I use the word "somewhat" only because of the dearth of information, the lack of what DM referred to as "data, data, data".
There are so many questions that can't be answered yet....and one of the biggest for me is how the PPS is sitting over $1 CDN after Monday's news. When BKC wrote his excellent SA Post one of the things that I completely agreed with was his view that if the Primary Endpoint wasn't met, how he anticpated that the PPS would evaporate within seconds....The article is now for members only, but I'm fairly certain that was the turn of phrase he used...please correct me if I'm wrong.
For me....opening at $0.54, bottoming out at $0.345 and then rebounding to the current price north of $1, this to me doesn't come close to being an evaporation. Granted, going from a close of $2.18 on the Friday before the news, to $1.09 the Friday afterwards isn't pretty....but is darn surpsing.
Many pointed to the trading leading up to Monday's announcement...speculating that in retrospect it certainly gave reason for pause. Even more telling perhaps was the trading Hepalink did immediately before the news came out, when their PPS fell the maximum threshold of 10%.
If the trading before the announcement of failing to meet the rigorous academic requirements in confirming the primary endpoint....if that trading was giving off indications, then it stands to reason that the trading since the news is also giving off indications.
But of course its all tea leaves until concrete news/data comes out. Like many I'm sure, I wish I'd sold at least some or all of my shares ahead of the news, thus giving myself the chance to double/triple on the number of shares I own...oh well, hindsight is 20/20.
Even though there may have been indications in the trading that the black swan was coming I didn't want to risk it....and as much as I'm intrigued by the trading of this past week, like paladin just said, I too have enough wet powder in play already....hopefully it keeps drying out.