Food For Thought
posted on
Oct 16, 2019 08:09PM
I have seen a number of posters saying that they are in this for the long haul. There is nothing wrong with that, I have been in this stock now for around 12 years. Consider these situations when whatching the News Releases and developing your strategy.
On July 06, 2018 BIIB anounced their P II Alzheimer's trial results and their share price lept from about $300 the day before to a high that day of about $369, or an increase in market cap of about $12.7 billion. Just 18 days later on July 24th they presented their full trial data at an Alzheimers conference and their shares went up yet again to $385 only to be exceeded the following day where they peeked at around $391. That $91 share price increase represented a market cap increase of about $16.7 billion from just before those trial results first came out. So Mr. Market valued their Alzheimer's program at about $16.7 billion until it didn't. Their share price drifted from that spike of $391 down to around $324 to March 24, 2019 when thay announced that they were abandoning their Alzheimer's program where it dropped to about $224 the following day. The day after that, Mar 25th their share price bottomed at about $215. The peek to trough share price move from $391 to $215 or $176 per was what the market swung based on the Alzheimer's program alone. That's a whopping $32.4 billion.
My point here is that it was the second day after significant news broke that the share price peeked and the second day after the news broke that the share price troughed.
Along with the companies that ssp mention in his post this morning try to find some old info on Dendrion (DNDN), a two day move from $7 to $58 on prostate cancer drug news and ImClone that spiked at $84 the second day after the news that Elli Lilly was offering them $81 per share.
There is a reason I chose the second day after the FLD reveal to have this contest end. Momentum players do have an effect on share prices, in both directions, that tend to carry on for about a day after significant news.
There is no reason that another poster couldn't step up and administer another contest that would end at some time of their choosing.
Just some food for thought.
tada