Re: Potential market
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 17, 2019 04:11PM
The only caution I would inject is that India and possibly China will definitely not pay $1,500/year for any drug. You are best off looking at the US and other Western deep pocketed populations.
If you look at the MACE rates, the difference is about 1/100 patient years for the 18% RRR. Given that insurance companies value each MACE at $200,000, the maximum any US insurance company will pay is $2,000 for CVD.
Given the current state of information, the only way you can get a much higher willingness and price for selling Apabetalone is to target patient groups with low eGFR. Then you get a numbers needed to treat at 20 to prevent a MACE event...and a far bigger willingness to pay up from insurance company (up to $10,000 per year).
Needless to say, whenever Apabetalone gets to be approved for kidney disease, this is going to be a stunningly successful drug. Medical science has nothing to offer re kidney disease.
The only reason I hesitate to jump up and down with joy, is that the eGFR data for the 1212 patients showed a fall in eGFR instead of an increase. Maybe the data is different for the narrower population with low eGFR. Now if that population with a low eGFR shows a statistically improved eGFR with our drug, then I will be convinced that this drug is going to be approved faster than people think.