" Is the market now saying that there will be no warrant conversion?"

Yes, IMO.  Makes no sense to exercise now.  An argument is that the warrant holders have been informed of promising developments that are not yet in the public arena but I doubt this.  If the warrant holders were excited, they would be purchasing shares in the open market (albeit perhaps in modest numbers to limit the effect on share price) as well as exercising warrants. The $1.33 exercise price should be acting as a floor (as well as a possible ceiling) if there is good news floating about.  Time for plan B on the temporary funding front.  Unless there is news coming within the reduced-price exercise period, this all bodes ill for current shareholders with respect to the dilution that we will face going forward. 

Jupe