Alternate Universes
posted on
Dec 13, 2019 12:01AM
I feel like there are two alternate or parallel universes in RVX. The believers on this board, the 20-30 or so posters that just seem to be positive no mater what and want a new stock contest with $20sp estimates when RVX is at a buck and a bit, with no money, no partners etc. and my alternate universe, where I see a company taking on water and waiting for a life raft from a big rich fat Pharma(s).
Let’s break this down somewhat objectively, at least objectively in my universe:
1. RVX we know is running on fumes. They have come up with the warrant program. Some like me can’t grasp how DM thinks such a program will work without significant news to bolster the sp. Some however feel DM has whispered in the warrant holders’ ears sweet somethings and they will therefore convert. Honestly, think about this clearly. Those with significant enough warrants to convert are the likes of Third Eye and very high net worth investors. Third Eye may be an extreme example but walk them back. They ensured they had no risk other than free warrants before the results were released. Get it no risk. These type investors and high net worth investors have advisors telling them to allocate, diversify and mitigate risk. Why anyone on this board thinks there will be a rush to convert warrants and increase these investors risk without significant news and sp appreciation is beyond my comprehension. But I will freely admit if I am wrong and there is a heavy conversion without a catalyst news event.
2. FDA – We are waiting on news from the FDA re fast tracking. Personally, and those in the biz I know see zero chance of fast tracking based on the results and the small sample sizes of the better trending results. However, many here seem to think there is a chance of good news from the FDA. I see this as California dreaming in my universe, but maybe mine is tainted by bad karma from a leader who has been overly optimistic to misleading to utterly non-transparent.
3. Stock loss selling – this was mentioned today, but there is going to be enormous pressure IMHO. Yes, many sold after the missed topline, but many held waiting for the kimono to reveal data that would shake the markets and are still sitting on significant losses. With the market being strong, most people will have large gains which can be offset with RVX losses and in my universe, netting RVX losses against other gains makes tax sense.
4. Partner – many will remember the story about the buyout offer in Don’s hand back at the 2007 AGM or whatever year it was. There may be multiple partners sniffing around, but we have heard that story or variations for years. In my universe, we have many transplanted Missourian’s who say “show me” something tangible for once.
5. The science. I will be the first to admit, I only have a cursory understanding. But many here keep saying ignore the markets, the science will prevail. I truly hope it does, but in my Universe I am skeptical. When the likes of Dr. Ray say the science is interesting but still needs further studies and the people and researchers in that world, I know agree with him wholeheartedly, I am not sure my universe is the same. But like I said, I make no claim to understand all the new data released and to be released.
In my universe, I also know PR by PR, webcast by webcast, I every so slowly have moved to cynic and negative poster. Maybe I am just bitter after 12 years or so. Thus, I am posting infrequently, rather than come across as just always being negative. But when I see yet another stock contest being proposed after all the crow we have eaten and the first estimates for the contest being $20, I just shake my head about whether my universe is right and yours delusional, or we are somewhere in between.