Civil vs. criminal court judgments
posted on
Dec 17, 2019 10:03AM
Some thoughts on partnering and buyout:
I think there will be sufficient interest from BP to partner with RVX. It is true that the p-value did not reach statistical significance, i.e. there was not less than 2.5% risk (two-sided p-value criterion is 0.05) of the drug not working. However, the results also show that there was 94.5% chance that the drug works. It is a little as if we are comparing verdicts from a criminal court case with those from a civil court - in the former, you have to prove your case beyond any reasonable doubt (the judge being the FDA), in the latter the burden of proof is much lighter (the judges being BP). It is definitely much more likely that Apabetalone works that it is that it doesn't work. Big Pharma knows this.
However, I tend to think that DM is also heavily considering selling the company. Eliminating warrants rather than selling newly minted shares makes perfect sense if they want to sell the company. I think so because a suitor is bound to buy all shares on a diluted basis. Thus, by trying to get a bit a working capital by making an offer to holders of warrants, the fully diluted number of shares does not change, which ultimately means that whatever price DM can get for RVX, the higher the price per share.
Just some thoughts.
BR
BKC