Below is a summary of what I believe are the key points made in the December webcast and the recent PR (bolding and underlining is mine):

·         applying for BTS with FDA and the EMA (90 to 120 days);

·         continuing SGLT2i partnering discussions (that presumably now includes DPP4 inhibitors);

·         renal partnering discussions ongoing;

·         CHF partnering discussions ongoing, with multiple parties;

·         Orphan partnering discussions in PAH and HIV.  PAH enrollment already commenced;

·         proceeding further with MoCA partnering discussions.

"The ongoing analysis of BETonMACE continues to produce extremely promising data and significantly strengthens the short-term commercial value of our lead compound, apabetalone.” 

We believe the efficacy and safety demonstrated with this combination approach will greatly assist in our strategic partnership discussions and significantly improves our intellectual property and commercial runway position. In short, we can demonstrate efficacy, safety and we believe we now have a clear path to commercialization.”

The main thread that I see in the above is the emphasis on partnering and commercialization.  This is clear.  There have been no comments on a potential buyer but that certainly doesn’t mean those discussions couldn’t also be going on in the background.  Further, I think that we can reasonably assume that answers on most, if not all, of these issues will be forthcoming by April 30 at the latest.

Ok, now let’s talk about operational funding.

If we are estimating a burn rate of approx. $1M per month then we will need about $3.5M to get us through to the end of April.  Some, or all, of that may come from the warrant conversion program.  If everyone converted then that is $15M and there is no issue.  If about 25% converted then that will do the job.  If the warrant conversion program yields nothing then we’re looking at some other source of financing.  Success on any of the partnering discussions could also yield some upfront cash in advance of April 30.  We could be looking at a shareholder loan.  We could be looking at a 2nd debenture funded by ORI capital.  There may be other options as well.

When management says that they now see a clear path to commercialization then, to me, that expresses a high degree of confidence that some form of commercialization is imminent.  So, I don’t share the view that they may not have a clear financial path to get there.  If the path to commercialization was still a long way off then that might be a problem.  However, we are only talking about a few short months until we know whether that will happen, and management is confident that it will.

I can't accept the premise that $3.5M is going to stop this train from getting to the next station.  Yes, it could well derail, anything is possible. But all things being equal I don't think financing will be the reason.  They are too close now, it's as simple as that........IMO.

P