cabel - BoM took about 4 years. First patient was dosed Nov 11 2015.

A new P3 with a strong partner could probably be done in half that time. With the spectacular results from the patients in BoM that were diabetic, were on an SGLT2 or a DPP4, with low functioning kidneys (below 60 eGFR, the lower the better) could end up being halted for ethical reasons if results were similar to BoM.

Since there are very few drugs around that increase eGFR and lots of patients that have a low eGFR. Supply of patients could be very high causing that type of trial to be fully recruited in short order. My guess would be less than 1 year. Most of the events happen in the first 6 months of recruiting so in theory most of the events should happen within 18 months of start dosing of a new P3. I would sincerely hope that a new trial would not be under powered so I have no idea of how many patients would be required and how many events to expect to have proper powering.

I look forward to comments from any who have a better grip on bio-statistics and trial design to set my thoughts straight if I have veered off course.

To answer your question cabel, my best guess is just under 3 years with a chance of being under 2 years.

Look at the safety record and stats from BoM that the recruiters could use to assist them!

tada