Good solid analysis iconoclast, I can't take exception to any of your observatitions....however I too hope you are wrong :-)  

The bid/ask did finally move a bit....seeing $1.26/$1.26 now, and there's still almost half an hour until the opening bell.  Above the 200 dma would be nice.  

We've got a couple near term boxes that still need checks.....where is the money coming from, both for future developments, and in the here and now.  And what about the eGFR numbers?  And of course then there's the big one we're all waiting/hoping on, news about some sort of involvement from BP. 

Tick those boxes off and the gains would hopefully be beyond signficant.