Re: it's easy to see how the market has trouble wrapping its head around the Science
posted on
Feb 12, 2020 10:25AM
fuzzy ... well said. It is very difficult to understand the science, even among clinicians and scientists. It isn't like this is a new entry (i.e. antibiotic) getting praise from "expert" KOL scientists and clinicians who understand a mature specialty, and the merits of a new entry. This is an entirely new field, whicy everyone is trying to wrap their head around.
Then, move to the markets ... how are investors supposed to grasp the science if the scientists are struggling (but optimistic?). And then look at the company: 1) no sales, 2) financially weak and fragile, 3) no approvals, 4) "failed" (or non-achieved) P3
The people who understand it are those that have devoted their lives to the science, and to a lesser extent those investors that have been uber-long.
But do they (RVX?) even compeletly understand it? ... I say probably not, given multiple study designs coming up short on primary endpoints? ... with continued multiple NEW surprise findings and post hoc realizations at every turn along the way, that keep it moving forward with money streaming. I'm sure some of this is troubling to regulatory, but some of the impressive data for unmet needs coupled with very impressive safety data certainy grabs attention, and has recently in a huge way (BT).
It will probably remain this way (imho) for retail pps ... Until a BP takes a "leap of faith" based on an increase and appreciable understanding and belief in the marketability of the science, sees appropriate de-risking (to avoid a severe "CLM"), and the price/risk gap narrows enough (higher or lower) to take a chance on a partnership/investment/purchase ...
With credibility from a well known BP partnering and legitimizing RVX to investors the pps could take off imho, until then it is just another promising but very highly speculative "pink sheet" penny stock to Mr Joe Retail.
All that said, even looking at the negative and challenging retail apsects, I continue to be "all in" and long personally, we are getting there. Very optimistic, it's just a long road inventing, introducing, and proving a whole new field of medicine. It's an amazingly complicated journey, and achieving the first (of possibly several) BT status on the heels of a "failed" P3 is fantastic and a VERY important credibility factor from regulatory, for foundations to advancing further. We are in a good place, even if taking too long for getting there, given our investor patience levels and risk tolerances.
With the science at its highest level of official acceptance to date (BT status), and the retail price still depressed ... well ... hmmm
jmho's