Re: 0.05 P-values -- A bridge too far ?
posted on
Feb 12, 2020 03:31PM
2nd para: Yes. In layman’s terms, P=0.06 means that even if the drug actually has no real effect, the observed difference between the placebo and treated groups would have occurred 6 times out of every 100.
The convention that P must be less than 0.05 is purely arbitrary. There is no scientific basis for that cut-off.
P= 0.05 corresponds to a 1 in 20 chance. There are circumstances in which some clinical trialists think this is too high, and others in which they think it is too low. Statisticians generally tend to think in terms of absolute probabilities (like P=0.0762), but clinical trialists and the FDA have to make yes/no decisions, and so are forced to use a cut-off P value. The P value of 0.05 is the same for all studies, and unrelated to the seriousness of the disease. This is because their only concern is whether or not the drug is effective. The same yardstick is used, whether the drug is for brain cancer or a pimple on your nose.