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Message: Financial Clues to the RVX Puzzle

Great post JJ,

True, there are little positives out of the financials. I dont think they can boast FDA or Partner discussions in the financials. It leaves us close to nothing. If we look rationnally at what happened in the last 5 and half months:

  1. Close miss for topline (p=0.11 and p=0.06)
  2. Great nuggets of data (Mace for renal subgroup, CD improvement, MACE in synergy with SGLT2i and DPP4i, CHF data)
  3. BTD before expected date
  4. Debts piling up (21M+ USD)
  5. Little dilution (less than 1.5M Shares and 0.75M warrants issued)


Ok SP sucks, but what would have changed at that point? Less dilution? There's close to no dilution in the 5.5 last months. It makes no sense to work on the SP if it doesnt help your strategy. Strategy is clearly communicated, partnering or buyout.

It looks like RVX is on life support or, they could look like a Formula One car running on fumes to make sure they cross the finish line with the best results. They have enough experience to try to pull the second option.

Finally, I really think they're going for it. Remember Don at the AGM? Longshot but potential for FDA approval? With BTD and this NR : 

“This is the most significant data ever released by Resverlogix. The p-value findings show that in this important target patient group there is a 2 in 10,000 chance that the enhanced reduction of Primary MACE and Hospitalization for Heart Failure of being a false positive signal. When apabetalone was applied to top standard of care in diabetes patients their risk of MACE events was greatly reduced. In total, approximately 25% of BETonMACE patients were on new oral anti-diabetic treatments that included SGLT2 and DPP4 inhibitors. In combination with apabetalone, primary MACE was reduced by 57% and by 63% when hospitalization for congestive heart failure was included. We believe the efficacy and safety demonstrated with this combination approach will greatly assist in our strategic partnership discussions and significantly improves our intellectual property and commercial runway position. In short, we can demonstrate efficacy, safety and we believe we now have a clear path to commercialization.”


I think everything is possible going forward. They may have a few catalysts coming:

  1. CKD substudy data
  2. Partnering news
  3. EMA BTD
  4. FDA news for next steps
  5. HIV or Orphan news
  6. Zenith news
  7. PAH phase 2 news (projected completion in June 2020)

 

I look forward to a very prosperous 2020 ;)

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