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Message: Bear

In November they had a $12 million debenture and $9 millionish of trade debt and no cash. Here we are 5 months later with those 3 items still in tact and yet no employees have been laid off. In that time a BTD was received and there may be another one in the works. Although they missed the mark in BETonMACE there were a couple of exceptional results that were not anticipated at the time the trial was designed. There was a synergy with a couple of drugs that are now considered standard of care that gave what some consider amazing results.

This sure doesn't look, smell or taste like a company that is going into CCAA. Who and why would someone or a group of someone's put up about a million a month for the last 5 months to keep this thing alive? I'm guessing some have a pretty good feeling of what to expect and I'll go a little further and say they ain't thinking about CCAA.

Sometimes people us these bullboards to plant seeds of doubt so that they can maybe cover off a short position or for some other reason. 

Covid-19 is definitely having an effect on business and the markets. This situation does not change the fact that when we get through this, and we will, there will be a $5 billion plus annual market for apabetalone if it ever gets to market. If Buckeyes is correct and this thing is worth $2 billion then that is about $8 per share. If it sells at a big fire sale for just a billion then it's about $4 per share. Keep in mind 47 just sold for 5X's potential annual sales and 3 or 4 analysts said that was a fair price. If there is a problem with the creditors, do you really think there would be a problem selling this for 20% or 40% of a low estimate for annual sales? Selling for $1 billion by the receiver should still leave $3.60 to $3.80 per share for shareholders even after their outrageous fees.

There is no doubt about these trying times but remember to look at the entire picture and not just segments when your making your decisions.

All IMO, dyodd

tada 

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