Re: Constellation Pharma
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 30, 2020 09:50AM
SF ... it's a risky investment with very real downside and and very plush upside. Many promising drugs and devices never make it to market for a number of reasons, even some with strong safety and efficacy profiles due to poor finances, poor management, emerging competitive field, or just a decision to spend resources in another place with a higher potential ROI or longer patent run. It's the nature of the speculative risk with a highly speculative company.
I get the frustration, especially for those in this "play" for 14-20 years. But over that time, there have times with exciting promise? ... last September for me, and then thud. Right?
Then a small rebound up from $.25-35. And while RVX did not reach enpoints (and jackpot) successfully, the disclosure of some enlightening and promising new science & data showed BoM1 did have significant "study" benefits.
Don laid out some info and next steps: 1) no shortage of operational funds, if/as needed, 2) work with FDA toward next study or bolt-on, 3) partner with BP moving forward, 4) clear(er) path to commercialization.
Since then, the company is keeping the lights on, money is coming from "deep interested pockets" from somewhere. BTD awareded. Next study design acceped by FDA, with language for early study termination proceeding to NDA if interim data is compelling (as EXPECTED) ...
That all happened, from the ashes in September. Next piece is the BP partner, which is said by the same person who claimed the "above" items were coming.
If someone has been in this stock for over 10-15 years, with the ups & downs, I get why some would give up and throw in the towel, maybe focus in other areas/investments during that course ... BUT - sure as heck NOT NOW ...
This appears to me, to be one of those 4-5 moments in the life of this company and apabetalone which look about as "promising" as ever, and at ridiculous low entry points given all that has accumulated to date and with the marketplace ... and like you, frankly I am shocked at the market value sometimes, just perplexed. Perhaps it is the long run of "almost" that brings out the "boy who cried wolf"? ... or appearing to be the little train that couldn't? ...
It's been stated that a BP partner is coming, a horse to hitch up to the RVX buggy.
Depending on if it happens, the shape of the deal/arrangement, and just simply the credibility of that scenario and news ... if there is not a jump in interest and confidence in the RVX stock, I will be at a new level of confused also ... a company with a new class of drug, 15-20 years of study/research, strong safety, strong efficacy data, near miss on P3 but with a resulting BTD, a new BoM2 study coming with early termination toward an NDA written in, and a significant BP partner? ... that is about where we are at now, waiting for the partner ...
Just hard for to imagine, no matter how much time and disappointment along the way, that one can find a way to not be excited about this opportunity ... at this point in time.
Sorry for the long ramble, and personal perspectives ... but come on man ... let's give it a few months and see what happens, it is potentially better set up for success now, than ever imho ...
glta