Re: Constellation Pharma
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 29, 2020 07:54PM
Fun with numbers and data:
SF - I think a better question is why was Constellation's (CNST) market cap $2.5 billion in Nov last year and now it's only half of that? From their inception in Aug 2018 until now they have increased about 1 and a half times more than where they started. From their peak in Dec last year until today they are less than half. What kind of an investment is that? As with any investment you have to pick your timing to make your arguement.
Let's look at another hot-rod biotech, Intercept (ICPT). It started in Aug 2012 at around $18 and shot up to over $480 in late 2013/early 2014. It currently sits around $47, less than 1/10th of its high. Again timing of your investment was all to important. With ICPT over the last 8 or so years if you sold today you would have about 2 & 1/2 times your investment from inception back.
Now with RVX, if I'm not mistaken they started as a Junior Capital Pool at $.20 a share in late 2001 or early 2002. They have been as high as $28 or $29 and currently sit at $.81 or about 4 times the original investment. In addition to this 4 fold increase in the RVX share price, that original investor has just as many shares of a spin-off company, Zenith Capital Corp that just finished raising money at US$ 1.50 per share or about $2 of the currency of origin. In total over that time the shareholders have $.81 + $2 or $2.81, 14 X's their original investment. What a terrible return on investment that is!!!
The evolution of any comanies story is always interesting. Timing of our investments is always crucial. The bottom line is we, as shareholders of RVX have made a concious decision to invest in a company in the highest risk category of any area of common stock investing. Our company and the 2 mentioned above have gone from rags to riches to rags to richs depending on how the science works out and is disseminated.
Your comments around news dissemination in the past have a lot of validity. The science being developed within the company is still playing out. Brand new science is always going to be met with a healthy amount of sceptisism. We have talked about that a lot on this board. The FDA seems to be wrapping their heads around this new science now with the issuing of a BTD in Feb this year. What is challenging to except at this point is that the company is attempting to rectify exactly what you say they have as a major shortcoming, news dissemination, and you don't seem to be able to accept their printed words. This isn't a whisper campaign, it's news releases.
14 X's the original investment looks to me like an increase in shareholder value. News releases versus whispers! What is it that you really want?
I have estimated my numbers from Stockwatch charts, they are not exact.
tada