As discussed on the board, today’s Ori announcement seems to imply RVX is not close to a deal and/or the extension gives them a little more positional strength to negotiate going forward.

We are now ten months from the announcement that BETonMACE did not meet the primary endpoint and a month since the last FDA update. So enquiring minds wonder, why do we still seem to be so far away from a deal?

I have been involved with many purchase and sales of businesses, mostly private with only a few public and none with a bio-tech. These agreements are complex, time consuming, fall apart a hundred times and need reams of lawyers for the type of IP RVX has. But if we try to simplify a very complex transaction, why has RVX not yet entered into an agreement and why is it taking so long?

One would think that given they have supposedly had partner talks for the last couple years, the basic framework of a deal is in place. So, what is with the hold-up? Here are a couple theories, I am sure there are many others and who knows if any are right or partially right?

1.       There is only” kicking the tire” interest in a partnership. This would not be the best answer.

2.       The FDA has clarified the path forward, but the partner(s) are trying to negotiate the size and parameters of the study as part of any partnership agreement.

3.       COVID has put a halt on deals. I think we have seen enough deals still happening to say that has some plausibility but has not stopped many other companies.

4.       Partners know RVX’s weak financial position and are waiting them out (part of the reason for the extension today).

5.       The DM factor.

This has been the $64,000 dollar question for so many years and we have no clue what has and has not gone on behind closed doors, but it is hard to fathom why a deal should not take place in the near term if there if there is real interest in RVX, as time is money in the bio-tech world. But I will not hold my breath.