Re: Comments on today's annual update
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 23, 2021 08:08AM
It could have been stated more clearly by Don but Koo's numbers are the impression I assume as well. I can't imagine Eversana would view this, as Don said, as one of their best opportunities ever if the gross sales were going to only amount to $25M annually. 3.5% on 25M/yr would not be much to get really excited about for a company of 3500 people.
Further, with a population base of almost 500M people, N. American sales of $700M annually doesn't seem unreasonable for a virus that is being projected to be with us indefinitely. Using Don's figure of $6.85/pill (from PBA) and assuming 10 pills per script, 5 days worth, that would amount to roughly 10 million scripts/year. If it is 20 pills per script then obviously the number goes to about 5 million scripts/year. Either of these scenarios would seem reasonable based on what Don has said about if it works it should about 3 days and then add some time on drug to make sure the job is done. We still need a positive trial obviously. I keep hearing the virus variants are more transmissible and with the percentage of people getting seriously ill seeming to be fairly low, the above sales projections would seem reasonable seat of the pants estimates for a therapeutic.
Fwiw I thought Don did a pretty good job of the presentation and I found it refreshing that he wasn't making the usual projections that in the recent path haven't even come close to being accurate. I hope in the future RVX will stick to talking about "what is" and start making statements that turn out to be accurate when talking about timelines and costs. To me they will find more market respect that way. JMO