RVX Thought Mar 19 2023

Here, just for fun, is some Monday morning quarterbacking on a Sunday.

The RVX management team continues to lurch along with diminishing returns on their dilutive exempt distributions, the only trick that this “one trick pony” has learned.

One month to go! On April 19th the payout of the debenture is due to Hepalink. What will it be?

• another year extension?
• an actual payout?
• loss of the IP?
• a deal with a BP?
• funding for BoM2?
• funding for Covid?
• etc.

On Sept 30, 2019 the BoM results were announced. The p achieved was 0.06. If it had achieved p = 0.05 the study would have been a success. Apabetalone may have received approval by the FDA. As has been pointed out to me many times on this board Don is not the only one responsible for making decisions. True, but he holds the 3 most important executive positions – CEO (the most powerful position), President and Chairman of the Board. Let’s assume the decision not to proceed with the futility analysis was made by the full team including scientists. The futility analysis and subsequent implications for the trial would have meant extending the trial length, increasing the sample size and thus increasing the cost. Perhaps the science team felt they had it nailed, hence no need to spend the money on a futility analysis. This is plausible. However, given that this management team has failed to adequately fund RVX even as evidenced by earlier trials, which were statistically underpowered, my hypothesis is that lack of financing played a very big role in the decision not to conduct the futility analysis.

OK, water under the bridge.

On Feb 3, 2020 the announcement of Breakthrough Designation by the FDA was issued. Scientific progress on apabetalone has been published numerous times since then. On the business side, other than forays into Saudi Arabia, Morroco, 3rd rate YouTube appearances and Covid, nothing has been achieved.

In an update presentation on Feb 4th, 2021 it was stated that RVX had discussions with a BP about a five-year BoM type trial involving a sample of 10,000 patients and refined end point criteria to be completed in 2025. I recall Don explaining at that time that RVX could not afford to take that amount of time and that they had a better 3 year trial of 3,000 patients.

So here we are now in 2023 with no trial at all. The 5-year trial would have been half completed and may well have exceeded it’s primary goal based on the large sample size.

As I said, just a bit of Monday morning quarterbacking. But you would be hard pressed to make this stuff up.

My guess is that the beaches in Hawaii have been fun this winter and the golf courses well maintained.

I’m long and stuck. However, in spite of what I believe is exceptional incompetence in RVX management I still feel strong about the science largely because of the posts by BDAZ over the years.

GLTA. Good things could happen but it is sure difficult to reconcile why the BOD is not doing their job. Why hasn’t Hepa pitched in on the science side?

Toinv