RVX Apr 7 2024

koo post Apr 2 2024

The following excerpt from the MD & A was posted by koo. Thanks for posting koo.

To me this is the most honest and clear statement I’ve seen in 16 years, although, I’m sure similar statements were contained in previous MD & As.

Re: Missed Opportunity

in response to 

Missed Opportunity

 by 

Toinv

posted on Apr 02, 2024 09:15AM

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Reference: MD&A (December 31, 2023)

"The impediment to the advancement of apabetalone’s development continues to be financing. We estimate the total cost of the BETonMACE2 study to be on the range of US$80 million. Since our PCC study requires the recruitment of a much smaller patient cohort, as well as shorter treatment and follow-up durations, this trial will cost a small fraction of BETonMACE2. As a result, we expect to be able to move forward with the PCC trial prior to securing a much larger cash infusion. We are in active discussions with multiple parties regarding financing and/or co-development opportunities for apabetalone."

PCC: Post COVID-19 Conditions.

What does this statement say to me?

1. The BoM2 trial will not start in 2024 and will take 3 to 5 years to complete, hence completion in 2029/2030 if started in 2025.
2. The post Covid conditions trial will probably take a year or two for completion given time for trial design, approval, financing, recruiting, treatment, analysis and then submission to the FDA if successful.
3. Management is incapable to achieving financing for BoM2 in spite of strong post hoc analysis and the FDA’s breakthrough therapy designation for apabetalone.
4. None of the invested RVX partners including Eastern Capital, ORI Capital, Efung Capital, NGN Capital CD Ventures and even Eversana seem to be stepping up to the plate by offering either financial or biotech expertise type assistance.
5. It is obvious that Mushroom Don is way over his head in the biotech financing game and he needs help.
6. Even more shocking, Mushroom Don does not seem to realize he needs help (this is called the Peter Principle at work).
7. Hepalink has not proceeded with their half of the BoM2 trials.
8. The debenture payment is due any day now.

So what is going on?

• There is no doubt in my mind about Don and his team’s business incompetence. The fact that they do not seem to be seeking help is a clear indication of the Peter Principle at work.
• However, perhaps there is another issue. The research review of apabetalone done by the Qatar university researchers was very positive but BoM failed at the p=0.06 level so there is no human trial validation of apabetalone’s therapeutic benefits.
• The fact that the significant investors listed above are not supporting Don and his team given that they would have been given the inside story of the science suggests that perhaps there is not much substance in the science for apabetalone. Perhaps apabetalone is just an academic curiosity that requires much more serious validation science. Perhaps it is a stepping-stone to the future to a more effective molecule in BET inhibition science in CVD and CKD health.
• Obviously the insiders like ORI, Eastern, CVD, etc have kicked the tires on the science.
• ORI still has a board seat but I wonder if other investors have slowly backed out?

Possible Remedies and Ramblings

1. Don is getting old. Reality may set in and he will need to be replaced. I doubt this will happen soon enough.
2. Send Don on an 8-month Hawaiian vacation and appoint Dr Lakhotia as interim CEO. By the time Don returns Dr Lakhotia will have 10 trials running on various conditions partnered with various BPs.
3. The idea of bringing in a CEO with legitimate biotech success has been mentioned from time to time in posts. Perhaps the science is not strong enough to attract a CEO with stock based incentives?
4. I was intrigued by the results in the ASSURE and SUSTAIN trials. While these trials were statistically small and underpowered they did reveal some signs of promise.
5. Is the lack of success in financing truly a result of the management team’s incompetence or is it because the major BPs have looked at the science and don’t think it is viable?

In Conclusion

My impression at this stage is that RVX has a delusional old man as CEO pursuing his pipe dream. He wants to go it alone when he does not have the skill set nor reputation to achieve his goals.

My Hope

RVX will be sold soon to a biotech that can complete the research.

I’d be thrilled to walk away with $3/share.

Anyway, these are my rambling thoughts and conflicted ideas about RVX and the Mushroom man. Just thinking out loud here.

2024 will be a dead year from a share price POV and if the Covid trial succeeds there might be some action in 2025 if RVX survives.

I’m holding my shares for the same reasons I buy a weekly lottery ticket. I have become skeptical about the science but I could make some money as soon as Don retires or is forced out by investors. If that happens it is a new game.

GLTA

Toinv