I have tried to put together some preliminary numbers to attempt to understand what a successful alluvial gold mining operation might mean for SCM. There are several assumptions that have to be made but tweaking any of the numbers still provides at least a crude basis for speculating.

Assumptions:

Gold price = $900
Capacity = 1,000 cubic meters/day
Utilization = 100% (i.e. will run at rated capacity)
Production cost = $450/oz
Avg. gold grade = 2 g/Cu.m
FD shares = 40,000,000
P/E = 10

The company has stated that the test mining equipment they are installing is rated at 1000 cubic meters/day, so that assumption should be okay. Utilization of 100% is probably very aggressive, particularly while things are getting underway. Production cost of $450/oz is hopefully much higher than it should be. This should help offset the aggressive utilization assumption. The company has reported that the test pits show 2-9 g/Cu.m, so the 2 gm assumption is using the low end of the reported range. The company has about 34MM shares outstanding right now, I figure they will add 6-7MM more fully diluted if they sell out the current PP. Using all of the above assumptions, I come up with $2.70/share. If you use 9 gms, then the number is $24.30/share. The average will almost certainly be somewhere in between those two numbers.

I am sure I have missed something, comments and/or criticism are invited.