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Message: My View: Slow and Steady Wins the Race

My View: Slow and Steady Wins the Race

posted on Dec 08, 2007 10:11AM
As investors, there is no doubt that we like to see quick and significant gains on our investment.  There are times when that happens, but in the markets it is usually not that way.  We all hear about a good story where that happens and we hope we will be in on the next one.  When it doesn't happen, we get disappointed and wonder what went wrong.  "Normal" is not usually that way. 

Normal is that share prices cycles or fluctuates within a range, as we have been doing with SGR for quite awhile.  Eventually, with development, that range will move higher.  Finally, as they reach new milestones, it could move up to a new level - like a higher plateau (but still with a range of its own). 

SGR has been developing for quite some time.  The growth of resource and reserves has been good, but with each step forward, there has been more dilution in order to finance the ongoing development.  I don't see that as bad...it has been necessary to finance the development.   Now we are working on the development of the new high-grade zones, a process that will take up to 6 more months before significant quantities of ore start to be produced from them.  I expect that there will be some upward SP movement from that, but that then could be a ways down the road.

Meanwhile, there should be a new 43-101 out in early 2008 and that could help the SP as well, but it will likely be end of February or March before it comes out.  That too could  help the share price jump up, but that too requires a bit more waiting.

So, while I hope to see the SP moving up and expect that it will do so to some degree now that we are past the downward pressure that came from the PP,  I think it would be more realistic to expect it to be Spring before we see any larger upward SP movement.   I hope I am wrong about that, and it could all change overnight in case there is new interest on Bay Street for some reason.  With larger institutions getting involved, there could be upward pressure from that.  As precious metal funds take in more RSP dollars soon, that could increase demand for SGR shares.  Out of these more immediate factors, I expect we will see the SP up to the $1.60-$1.70 range.  My estimate is Spring 2008 before we see $2.00.

I agree that it is undervalued and should be higher.  There are reasons for that.  And we WILL hit $4-$8 down the road - just a ways further down the road than some expect, IMHO.

From personal experience, beware of other stocks that promise the moon...or look like they will far outperform SGR.  I've been down that road too, and my batting average has been disappointing.  At least with SGR we have a real situation with real gold, and the ability to produce it.    The picture is getting better (slowly, but steadily) and this is a very good place to put your money  - pretty low risk, IMO,and very high potential for significant gains - it will just take awhile to get there. 

NorthLion
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