New Fundamental Research report
posted on
Apr 02, 2008 09:57PM
San Gold Corporation - one of Canada's most exciting new exploration companies and gold producers.
Investment Analysis for Intelligent Investors
Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA
Analyst
Martha Buckwalter-Davis, BA (Geology)
Research Associate—Mining and EnergyKevin Liu, BBA, BSc
Research Associate
March 7, 2008
2008 Fundamental Research Corp. www.researchfrc.com Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA
PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
San Gold Corporation (TSX.V: SGR) –Continued Exploration Success
Sector/Industry: Mining www.sangoldcorp.com
Market Data (as of March 7, 2008)
Current Price C$1.49
Fair Value C$1.82 ()Rating* BUY
Risk* 4 (Speculative)
52 Week Range C$0.91 –C$1.66Shares O/S 214,144,741
Market Cap C$319.08 mm
Current Yield N/A
P/E (forward) 18.85
P/B 7.88
YoY Return 29.6%
YoY TSXV -10.9%
*see back of report for rating and risk definitions
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
8-Mar -07 7-Jul -07 5-Nov-07 5-Mar -08
$ 0.00
$ 0.20
$ 0.40
$ 0.60
$ 0.80
$ 1.00
$ 1.20
$ 1.40
$ 1.60
$ 1.80
Investment Highlights
San Gold has focused their development and exploration workon the Rice Lake Mine, using a new geologic model which
has been very successful.
The company recently announced the discovery of a newmineralized zone, the Hinge Zone, located between the Rice
Lake and San Gold #1 Mines. This area opens up significant
exploration potential for the company.
They are currently operating at 500 tpd. The company plansto bring their mill to a full capacity of 1,200 tonnes/day by the
beginning of 2009.
Although our average fair value estimate on the companyincreased from $345.45 million to $402.84 million, our value
per share estimate dropped from $1.94 to $1.82 due to a
24.3% increase in the number of shares (diluted) outstanding
since our previous report.
San Gold Corp. initiated production in late August 2006 on their Rice Lake Gold Mine in Rice Lake, Manitoba. Their
continued exploration program has added new resources and reserves from several mineralized zones on the property. San
Gold is currently transitioning from mine development to production, and plans to reach full mill capacity by 2009.
Key Financial Data (FYE - December 31)
(C$) 2005 2006 2007E 2008E
Revenues - 768,771 5,417,504 40,295,871
Net Income (5,386,529) (18,445,817) (23,436,120) 16,926,004
EPS (0.07) (0.18) (0.11) 0.08
Cash + Marketable Securities 3,610,766 13,048,010 50,393,443 49,550,184
Working Capital (513,289) 12,309,769 32,634,361 41,981,712
Total Assets 36,945,480 114,333,003 198,441,376 211,890,199
Total Debt 2,525,443 16,237,846 15,298,379 537,682
Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA San Gold Corporation (TSX.V: SGR) - Update Page 2
2008 Fundamental Research Corp. www.researchfrc.com Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA
PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Company
Overview
Production
Update
Exploration
and
Development
San Gold Corporation has been producing gold from their Rice Lake and San Gold mines in
Manitoba, Canada, since August 2006. They are currently bringing mill operations up to 800
tpd by Q2-2008, and plan to achieve 1,200 tpd by the beginning of 2009, by bringing the
Cartwright Zone into production.
In our last update, we discussed the company’s transition from development mining to fullscale
operations. The mill is currently operating at 500 tonnes per day as they transition from
400 tpd to 800 tpd. We expect them to achieve 800 tpd by the end of Q2-2008. Through the
development of the Cartwright Zone, they plan to achieve full capacity of 1,200 tons/day by
the beginning of 2009.
The company is focusing on the exploration of the Rice Lake Mine, which has proven very
successful. In our previous report, we discussed the company’s exploration of high-grade
veins identified deep in the Rice Lake Mine. Many of these veins consistently grade between
one and two ounces of gold per ton, and they have not been included in the most recent
resource estimate. They have identified three large veins, known as 96, A, and C, as well as
numerous smaller veins and new discoveries. They have identified mineralization to up to 500
feet below the (4730 feet) level.
A new geologic model at the Rice Lake Mine has added great exploration potential. The
company has identified mineralization in the footwall and hanging wall in the Rice Lake
Mine, which was considered waste rock before. This opens up new resources that could be
readily accessible from current workings. Recently, the company announced the discovery of
multiple mineralized zones known as the “Hinge Zone”, 1.5 kilometers northeast of the Rice
Lake Mine in the hangingwall unit. This area does not outcrop at surface, and is located in
between Rice Lake and San Gold #1. This indicates very significant resource expansion
potential for the company, and the company has continued to release positive results from this
new zone. The drilling results from the Hinge Zone are outlined in the table below.
Source: San Gold Corporation
Hole # From To Length Gold g/tonne (oz/ton)
UPPER ZONE
GS-07-15 56.0 m 57.5 m 1.5 m (5.0 ft) 18.5 (0.55)
GS-07-16 48.7 m 9.7 m 1.0 m (3.3 ft) 30.2 (0.90)
GS-07-17 63.0 m 65.4 m 2.4 m (7.9 ft) 11.4 (0.34)
GS-07-18 69.3 m 71.8 m 2.5 m (8.3 ft) 23.2 (0.69)
GS-07-19 74.7 m 80.0 m 5.3 m (17.4 ft) 7.1 (0.21)
and 82.2 m 85.3 m 3.1 m (10.0 ft) 4.5 (0.13)
GS-07-28 132.5 m 134.2 m 1.7 m (5.6 ft) 9.7 (0.29)
and 158.6 m 159.6 m 1.0 m (3.3 ft) 13.1 (0.39)
LOWER ZONE
GS-07-15 248.2 m 249.2 m 1.0 m (3.3 ft) 18.5 (0.55)
GS-07-18 255.3 m 256.3 m 1.0 m (3.3 ft) 26.0 (0.77)
GS-07-28 319.9 m 321.5 m 1.6 m (5.3 ft) 9.7 (0.29)
and 324.1 m 326.4 m 2.3 m (7.6 ft) 4.7 (0.14)
and 330.4 m 332.7 m 2.3 m (7.6 ft) 20.1 (0.62)
and 346.2 m 351.1 m 4.9 m (16.1 ft) 7.4 (0.22)
Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA San Gold Corporation (TSX.V: SGR) - Update Page 3
2008 Fundamental Research Corp. www.researchfrc.com Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA
PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Exploration
and Production
Goals for 2008
Resource
Estimate
Management
Changes
San Gold’s goals for the next 12 months:
The company hopes to announce an updated NI 43-101 compliant resource estimate in Q1-2008.
The company hopes to produce 50,000 ounces of gold in 2008.
To meet mine life upgrade goals, the company plans to achieve 800 tpd by Q2-2008.
In order to expand mill production to full capacity, the company expects to develop theCartwright gold deposit into a producing mine in 2008 and 2009.
Category Tons Grade Contained Gold
oz/ton Au (g/t Au) (in ounces)
Total Measured
and Indicated 1,556,600 0.26 (8.9) 402,880
Total Inferred 4,774,500 0.25 (8.9) 1,200,010
Total Reserves 1,306,900 0.26 (8.9) 336,150
Note: Proven and Probable Reserves are that portion of the measured and indicated resource
categories that are determined to be economically mineable based on a feasibility study.
In addition, we have estimated the following resource from the 96, A, and C Veins that have
not been incorporated into the most recent resource estimate.
The company has made a number of management changes and additions in conjunction with
their transition to a full-scale producer. The biographies of new mine and mill management
follow.
Ron Moran - Vice President, Technical Services
Ron will be responsible for long-term mine planning, budgeting, new projects and will
coordinate contractor activities with the Mine department. Ron will also be a key member of
the management team in evaluating new properties and acquisitions and will report directly to
the CEO and the San Gold board of directors. His over 25 years of mine management and
engineering experience includes Dumas Contracting, Placer Dome, Noranda, Denison,
HBM+S and most recently Mine Manager and Chief Engineer with River Gold / Wesdome.
Ron has been working with San Gold over the past year as a consultant and is a member of the
Professional Engineers of Ontario.
Richard McPherson - Manager of Mining
Mr. McPherson will be responsible for all aspects of underground production and
development. His vast experience of over 40 years in mining, safety and contract management
includes Procon Mining, Cementation, Echo Bay and as a mines inspector with the N.W.T.
Strike
(ft)
Width
(ft)
Depth
(ft)
Volume
(cubic feet)
Sp. Gv
(cubic feet/ton)
Tonnage
(tons)
Grade
(oz/ton)
Resource
(oz)
96 Vein 700 15 400 4,200,000 11.5 365,217 0.6 219,130
A Vein 400 10 400 1,600,000 11.5 139,130 0.3 41,739
C Vein 500 8 400 1,600,000 11.5 139,130 0.3 41,739
Total Resource 302,609
Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA San Gold Corporation (TSX.V: SGR) - Update Page 4
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PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Outlook for
Gold
government. Richard has been with San Gold as the Mine Superintendent since August 2005.
John Hutchison - Mill Manager
John was instrumental in the re-start of the Rice Lake Mill as Mill Superintendent for San
Gold since 2005 and is the former Mill Superintendent for the same mill under previous
operators Harmony Gold.
Don Bridges - Mill Superintendent
Don has extensive experience in the operation and management of gold mills, most recently
with River Gold / Wesdome and will report directly to the Mill manager.
The chart below shows gold prices since January 2006. Gold prices are currently trading at
their record highs, and as of March 5, 2008, were trading at US$990/oz, which reflects a YOY
increase of 54%.
Gold Price
(Jan 3, 2006 - Feb 19, 2008)
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
3-Jan-06 16-Jul-06 26-Jan-07 8-Aug-07 18-Feb-08
US$ / oz
So urce :KITCO
Although gold prices have risen considerably in the second half of 2007, and early 2008, and
are currently trading at record highs, we have maintained our positive outlook on gold due to
the following macro economic conditions:
a) The US$ is expected to continue to depreciate with respect to other global currencies,
based on an expected slow down in the U.S. economy, relatively lower real interest rates in the
U.S., and persisting inflationary expectations.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects U.S. GDP to grow at 1.5% in 2008, versus
2.2% in 2007, and the Federal Reserve predicts unemployment rates to increase YOY from
4.6% to 5.2% in 2008. Even though the U.S. Fed cut interest rates from 5.25% to 3.00% in
their last five meetings, we expect to see further rate cuts in the first half of 2008, to tackle the
ongoing credit crunch problems and the softening U.S. housing industry. Further rate cuts
imply that real interest rates in the U.S. could possibly go negative, which is very unfavorable
for the US$. The rate cuts in turn, we believe, will add to inflationary pressures and
simultaneously depreciate the value of the U.S.$. The Fed recently raised their forecasts for
inflation in 2008 from 1.8 –2.1% to 2.1 –2.4%.
Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA San Gold Corporation (TSX.V: SGR) - Update Page 5
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Financials
b) High Oil Prices: We have also noticed a positive correlation between gold and oil prices in
times of high oil prices. High oil prices create inflationary expectations among investors and
lead them to drift towards gold. The chart below shows oil and gold prices since 1986. We
noticed that the positive correlation between monthly log changes in oil and gold prices
increased during January 2006 –January 2008, when oil prices were high, from the historic
correlation (1986 –2006) of 0.18 to 0.53, which is a significant jump.
Oil Vs Gold Prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan-1986 Jul-1991 Jan-1997 Jul-2002 Jan-2008
US$/bbl
0
200
400
600
800
1000
US$/oz
Source: EIA and Kitco WTI Spot Price Gold
Oil is currently trading close to US$100/bbl, and prices are expected to stay above $80/bbl
through at least 2010, which we believe will also have a positive effect on the demand for
gold.
c) Investment demand continue to stay strong: Currently, the total ETG (exchange tradedgold) assets held by the NEW York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the London Stock Exchange
(LSE) are up 29% YOY. We believe, continued strength in investment demand reflects the
fact that gold continues to hold its status as a ‘capital preservation asset’.
Therefore, based on a depreciating U.S dollar, high oil prices and strong investment demand,
we continue to be bullish on gold prices. The average consensus forecasts for gold prices are
US$870/oz in 2008, and US$880/oz in 2009.
Revenues: In the first nine months of FY2007 (ended September 2007), the company reportedrevenues of $3.26 million, from sales of 4,488 oz of gold (average gold price of $727.3/oz).
Based on the company’s production rate in the first nine months of 2007, and our forecasts forQ4-2007, we have lowered our estimate of production to 7,564 oz of gold in 2007, compared
with 25,000 oz in our previous report. Also based on our new estimates of the company’s mill
processing rate (tpd), operating days and other parameters, we forecast the company will
recover 44,968 oz of gold in 2008, compared with 49,702 oz in our previous report.
Based on sales of 7,564 oz of gold in FY2007, we expect the company to report $5.50 million
in revenues (previous estimate was $17.82 million from 25,000oz). Revenues are expected to
significantly increase to $40.30 million in FY2008, as annual production increases to an
Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA San Gold Corporation (TSX.V: SGR) - Update Page 6
2008 Fundamental Research Corp. www.researchfrc.com Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA
PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
estimated 44,968 oz of gold (previous estimate was $38.31 million from 49,702 oz of gold).
Exploration expenditures in Q3-2007 reduced significantly as the company’s activities were
focused on development. SGR capitalized $1.63 million of expenditures in Q3 - 2007 ($7.35
million YTD) related to the Rice Lake and SG #1 mineral properties. The company also
expensed $2.95 million on exploration for the 9-month period ended September 30, 2007,
compared to $21.18 million for the same period in 2006.
EPS Forecasts: In the first nine months of FY2007, the company had a net loss of $23.06million (EPS: -$0.15). Our EPS forecasts are a net loss of $23.44 million, and -$0.11 EPS for
FY2007 (previous forecast was net loss of $10.28 million, and -$0.06 EPS), and net income of
$16.93 million, and $0.08 EPS for FY2008 (previous forecast was net income of $12.37
million, and $0.07 EPS), respectively. Lower revenue forecasts and higher than expected costs
led us to lower our eps forecasts for FY2007.
Cash Position and Liquidity: As at September 30, 2007, the company had $11.79 million incash and marketable securities. We estimate the company had a burn rate (cash spent on
operating and investing activities) of $2.75 million per month for the 9-month period ended
September 30, 2007, compared to $2.71 million per month in FY2006 (12 month period). The
table below shows a summary of the company’s cash and liquidity position.
At the end of Q3-2007, the company had debt of $14.77 million (9.1% of assets) in term loans
and convertible debentures. In February 27, 2008, the company announced that the $10
million 2-year senior secured convertible redeemable debentures have been either redeemed
by the company or converted into common shares at a price of $0.80 per common share. We
estimate about 12.46 million common shares were issued pursuant to the conversion. The
company also issued about 0.49 million common shares in payment of approximately $0.55
million of the interest owing on the debentures, with the remainder of the interest satisfied by
cash payments to the holders of the debentures. We expect debt levels to drop to $0.54 million
(0.32% of assets) by the end of FY2008, as the company repays its terms loans and
convertible debentures that are due in 2008.
Recent Financings: In December 2007, the company closed a private placement by issuing1,283,746 flow-through shares at a price of $1.69 per share for aggregate gross proceeds of
$2,169,530.70.
In November 2007, the company completed the issuance of 28,625,000 units at a price of
$1.40 per unit for aggregate gross proceeds of $40,075,000. Each unit consists of one common
share and one half common share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to
(in C$) 2005 2006 Q3-2007 2007 (9mo)
Current Ratio 0.90 2.96 1.06 1.06
Working Capital (513,289) 12,309,769 1,149,722 1,149,722
Debt/ Assets 6.8% 14.2% 9.1% 9.1%
Total Debt 2,525,443 16,237,846 14,773,770 14,773,770
Burn Rate (per month) 451,376 2,712,878 2,700,183 2,751,758
Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA San Gold Corporation (TSX.V: SGR) - Update Page 7
2008 Fundamental Research Corp. www.researchfrc.com Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA
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Valuation
purchase one common share at a price of $2.00 for a period of 18 months from the date of
issuance.
Conclusion: At the end of September 2007, the company had $11.79 million in cash and
marketable securities. In addition, the company raised about $42 million in the two recent
financings. Based on our discussions with management, we expect the company to spend
about $20 million ($8 million on exploration and $12 million on development) in the next 12
months. We believe the company is in a good cash position. We expect the cash on hand and
the cash flows from operations will be able to fund exploration and development work in the
future, thereby minimizing share dilution.
We have continued to value SGR based on four valuation techniques that we have used in our
previous reports. The following noteworthy changes were made in our revised valuation
models.
1. Raised our short-term commodity price forecasts –In our revised model, we have used an
average gold price forecast of US$870/oz in 2008 (previous estimate –US$748/oz), and
US$880/oz in 2009 (previous estimate –US$805/oz).
2. Higher C$/US$ forecast –We have increased our exchange rate forecast for 2009 to
C$1.07/US$, up from C$1.05 /US$.
3. Revised risk-free interest rate and annualized dividend yield –We have revised our riskfree
interest rate and annualized dividend yield (for the real options model) to 3.78% and
7.7%, respectively (previous estimates were 4.2% and 6.0%).
4. Increased capital costs –We have raised our capital cost estimates from $10 million to
$13.5 million.
5. Removed Lake Shore Gold (TSX: LSG) from our comparable valuation model –Since
LSG has not yet achieved commercial production, we have removed LSG from our
comparables valuation model.
Our average revised valuation on the company increased (primarily due to increases in shortterm
gold price forecasts) from $345.45 million to $402.84 million. However, due to a 24.3%
increase in our estimate of the number of diluted shares (from 178.24 million to 221.60
million) since our previous report, our value per share estimate dropped from $1.94 per share
to $1.82 per share.
Valuation Summary
Fair Value VPS Fair Value VPS
DCF $273,577,038 $1.53 $326,302,324 $1.47
Real Options $341,785,875 $1.92 $437,318,300 $1.97
Comparables $254,878,819 $1.43 $329,442,279 $1.49
Cash Flow Multiple $511,540,008 $2.87 $518,280,932 $2.34
Average $345,445,435 $1.94 $402,835,959 $1.82
Previous Revised
Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA San Gold Corporation (TSX.V: SGR) - Update Page 8
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Conclusions &
Rating
Risks
The sensitivity of our DCF valuation to changes in our long-term gold price forecasts is shown
below.
As shown in the table, our DCF valuation will range between $0.83 per share and $2.38 per
share, if gold prices range between US$350/oz to US$950/oz.
San Gold is planning to ramp up production in 2008 to 800 tpd, and bring the Cartwright Zone
into production at the end of the year. The company is continuing with aggressive exploration
to increase their resource base, and we expect to see an updated NI 43-101 compliant resource
estimate in 2008. The exploration success has been great in 2007, including the discovery of
deep veins in Rice Lake and a new geologic model that has identified gold mineralization in
what was previously interpreted as barren waste rock. We believe Rice Lake is a very
important emerging gold camp and that continued exploration success can be expected, as the
region is still underexplored.
We believe the company’s fundamentals have remained strong, even though our fairvalue per share estimate dropped. Based on our revised valuation models and review of
the company’s progress since our previous report, we reiterate our BUY rating on the
company, but lower our fair value estimate from $1.94 per share to $1.82 per share. Our
fair value estimate reflects an upside potential of 22% from current price levels.
We rate the shares a RISK of 4 (Speculative). The following risks, though not exhaustive,will cause our estimates to differ from actual results:
Like other producing companies, the value of the company depends heavily on gold prices.
The success of further development, exploration, and expansion is a significant factor in
San Gold’s success.
Gold Price Value/Share (C$)
$350 $0.83
$400 $0.96
$450 $1.09
$500 $1.21
$550 $1.34
$600 $1.47
$650 $1.60
$700 $1.73
$750 $1.86
$800 $1.99
$850 $2.12
$900 $2.25
$950 $2.38
Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA San Gold Corporation (TSX.V: SGR) - Update Page 9
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Consolidated Statement of Operations & Deficit
(in C$)
2005 2006 2007E 2008E
Revenues - 768,771 5,417,504 40,295,871
Operating Costs 1,230,038 8,502,278 15,591,131 9,938,333
Gross Margin (1,230,038) (7,733,507) (10,173,628) 30,357,538
Direct Exploration Expenses 1,483,376 7,496,599 3,527,374 6,000,000
General & Administrative Expenses 2,011,189 5,829,586 4,195,103 4,969,167
Royalty Expenses - 578,176 4,244,328 3,045,012
Interest and Bank Charges 174,756 962,861 1,576,811 529,498
Deferred Financing Costs 102,806 294,567 877,604 -
Accretion - Convertible Debentures 45,400 305,218 524,609 262,305
Accretion - Asset Retirement Obligation 58,350 113,973 124,832 124,832
Depletion of Mineral Properties - 445,647 674,820 598,192
Amortization - Property, Plant & Equipment 26,810 64,602 1,634,389 598,192
Share based Compensation 1,125,839 2,780,299 1,779,635 1,779,635
Net Income before other revenue (6,258,564) (26,605,035) (29,333,133) 12,450,706
Indemnification Fee 64,907 58,423
Mineral Exploration Assistance Program 79,493 195,040 - -
Project Management Fee 92,036 - -
Interest Income 19,506 5,091,471 5,838,590 7,270,346
Future Income Tax Recovery 681,000 2,807,800
Income Tax 2,795,048
Net Income (5,386,529) (18,445,817) (23,436,120) 16,926,004
Earning (Loss) per common share (0.07) (0.18) (0.11) 0.08
Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA San Gold Corporation (TSX.V: SGR) - Update Page 10
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Consolidated Balance Sheet
(in C$) 2005 2006 2007E 2008E
Current Assets
Cash 3,544,872 12,210,678 41,239,228 40,395,969
Marketable Securities 65,894 837,332 9,154,215 9,154,215
Accounts Receivable 747,557 1,862,244 1,955,356 2,053,124
Supply Inventory 788,961 828,409 869,830
Gold in Process 2,719,891 2,855,886 2,998,680
Prepaid Expenses 137,181 180,525 189,551 199,029
Total Current Assets 4,495,504 18,599,631 56,222,645 55,670,846
Property, Plant & Equipment 21,715,304 6,878,139 10,144,049 15,045,857
Mineral Properties 28,245,175 35,496,192 43,398,000
Collateral Deposits 450,000 450,000 450,000 450,000
Deferred Financing Costs 110,023 877,604 - -
Mining Claims and Options 174,649 332,649 459,649 459,649
Promissory Notes 10,000,000 58,949,805 95,668,842 96,865,847
Total Assets 36,945,480 114,333,003 198,441,376 211,890,199
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable & Accrued Liabilities 2,281,332 4,893,516 5,138,192 5,395,101
Current portion of LT debt 106,416 172,950 363,867 362,621
Deferred Revenues 644,383 644,383 644,383
Convertible Debentures 2,071,822 14,396,830 -
Current portion of royalty obligations 579,013 3,045,012 7,287,029
Deferred Interest 549,223
Total Current Liabilities 5,008,793 6,289,862 23,588,284 13,689,134
Asset retirement obligation 1,108,333 1,222,306 1,347,138 1,471,970
Convertible Debentures 15,811,741 - -
LT Debt 347,205 253,155 537,682 175,061
Royalty Obligation 10,000,000 58,868,163 92,623,830 89,578,818
Total Liabilities 16,464,331 82,445,227 118,096,934 104,914,983
Shareholders' Equity
Share capital 32,839,089 65,466,412 135,579,564 143,504,699
Contributed Surplus 5,115,520 5,428,333 7,207,968 8,987,602
Deficit (17,473,460) (39,006,969) (62,443,089) (45,517,085)
20,481,149 31,887,776 80,344,442 106,975,216
Total S.E & Liabilities 36,945,480 114,333,003 198,441,376 211,890,199
Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA San Gold Corporation (TSX.V: SGR) - Update Page 11
2008 Fundamental Research Corp. www.researchfrc.com Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA
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Consolidate Statement of Cash Flows
(in C$) 2005 2006 2007E 2008E
Operating Activities (5,386,529) (18,445,817) (23,436,120) 16,926,004Loss for the period
Items not affecting cash
Accretion - convertible debentures 45,400 305,218 524,609 262,305
Accretion - asset retirement obligation 58,350 113,973 124,832 124,832
Amortization - deferred financing costs 102,806 294,567 877,604 -
Amortization - property, plant and equipment 26,810 64,602 1,634,389 598,192
Depletion - 445,647 674,820 598,192
Share based compensation 1,125,839 2,780,299 1,779,635 1,779,635
Adjustment from accounting policy adoption
Future Income Tax Recovery (681,000) (2,807,800) - -
Net change in non-cash working capital (230,366) (1,418,466) (32,905) (34,551)
(4,938,690) (18,667,777) (17,853,136) 20,254,609
Investing Activities
Purchase of Property, Plant and Equipment (393,304) (3,120,333) (4,900,299) (5,500,000)
Purchase of Marketable Securities (771,438) (8,316,883)
Investments in Mineral Properties - (10,716,426) (7,925,837) (8,500,000)
Investment in Promissory Note (48,869,000)
Purchase of Mining Claims and Options (30,000) (50,000) (127,000) -
Amalgamation Costs (54,512)
(477,816) (63,527,197) (21,270,019) (14,000,000)
Financing Activities
Proceeds from shares issued and subscribed 4,889,865 26,899,815 70,951,042
Proceeds from capital lease
Proceeds from royalty obligation - 48,869,000 (497,371) -
Proceeds from debentures 2,111,000 16,734,000 (1,939,520) (6,734,000)
Convertible debt issue costs (262,040) (1,172,171)
Share issue costs (203,382) (442,348) (837,890)
LT debt 390,047 (27,516) 475,444 (363,867)
Collateral Deposit (450,000)
6,475,490 90,860,780 68,151,705 (7,097,867)
Change in Cash 1,058,984 8,665,806 29,028,550 (843,258)
Cash, beginning of the period 55,176 3,544,872 12,210,678 41,239,228
Cash, end of the period 1,114,160 12,210,678 41,239,228 40,395,969
Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA San Gold Corporation (TSX.V: SGR) - Update Page 12
2008 Fundamental Research Corp. www.researchfrc.com Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA
PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Fundamental Research Corp. Equity Rating Scale:
Fundamental Research Corp. Equity Rating Scale:
Buy –Annual expected rate of return exceeds 12% or the expected return is commensurate with risk
Hold –Annual expected rate of return is between 5% and 12%
Sell –Annual expected rate of return is below 5% or the expected return is not commensurate with risk
Suspended or Rating N/A— Coverage and ratings suspended until more information can be obtained from the company regarding recent events.
Fundamental Research Corp. Risk Rating Scale:
1 (Low Risk) - The company operates in an industry where it has a strong position (for example a monopoly, high market share etc.) or operates in a regulated industry.The future outlook is stable or positive for the industry. The company generates positive free cash flow and has a history of profitability. The capital structure is
conservative with little or no debt.
2 (Below Average Risk) - The company operates in an industry where the fundamentals and outlook are positive. The industry and company are relatively less sensitiveto systematic risk than companies with a Risk Rating of 3. The company has a history of profitability and has demonstrated its ability to generate positive free cash
flows (though current free cash flow may be negative due to capital investment). The company’s capital structure is conservative with little to modest use of debt.
3 (Average Risk) - The company operates in an industry that has average sensitivity to systematic risk. The industry may be cyclical. Profits and cash flow are sensitiveto economic factors although the company has demonstrated its ability to generate positive earnings and cash flow. Debt use is in line with industry averages, and
coverage ratios are sufficient.
4 (Speculative) - The company has little or no history of generating earnings or cash flow. Debt use is higher. These companies may be in start-up mode or in aturnaround situation. These companies should be considered speculative.
5 (Highly Speculative) - The company has no history of generating earnings or cash flow. They may operate in a new industry with new, and unproven products.Products may be at the development stage, testing, or seeking regulatory approval. These companies may run into liquidity issues, and may rely on external funding.
These stocks are considered highly speculative.
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opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness.
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