Re: NPV Calculation - share dilution
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 05, 2008 07:59PM
San Gold Corporation - one of Canada's most exciting new exploration companies and gold producers.
Thanks for the encouragement, guys.
I think it is safe to assume that there would at least be the stock option dilution. I may be wrong here but management can issue shares up to 1% of shares outstanding, and nothing says that they will not do just that.
I might be wrong but you could adjust for something like that.
I could. Just add another line to the spreadsheet, dilute the stock at a 1% annual rate, compounded yearly... and:
There will be ~365,715,955 shares outstanding in 2043. Next, we'd have to figure out how to treat the dilution.
In my opinion (and someone please correct me if I'm wrong here), share dilution is inflationary - that is to say, each new share issued diminishes the value of the existing shares by 1/(total shares outstanding). Therefore, one simply divides the NPV by the estimated total #shares and the end of the period of study.
So, from inintial estimates, that would put a lower bound on the NPV, I would think, since I highly doubt they will continuously dilute the share structure at that rate for the next 35 years.
0.4 oz/t, $662 Gold, 365,715,955 shares out:
$1.97/share 10% DR
$2.88/share 7% DR
$3.85/share 5% DR
0.4 oz/t, $934 Gold, 365,715,955 shares out:
$3.40/share 10% DR
$4.90/share 7% DR
$6.50/share 5% DR
0.4 oz/t, $1,500 Gold, 365,715,955 shares out:
$6.36/share 10% DR
$9.10/share 7% DR
$12.01/share 5% DR
These projections, by the way, would result in ~8.3M oz of gold being mined out of their Rice Lake properties over the next 35 years.
I really would like to hear back from the company regarding what their eventual tonnage capacity is projected to be.
D.