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Message: The catylyst and the story . . .
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Aug 27, 2008 12:12PM

Dale says the #'s will speak for themselves. As you see in McEwan's comments below he gives "high marks" to the story!While we wait for the "major discovery" (which could very well be SAN) we need "the story" to satiate the market.

RM: The catalyst, as it’s been in most situations like this in the past, is going to be a major discovery, something that wakes investors up and shakes them out of their lethargy. You never know when that’s going to happen, but discoveries often happen at bottoms of markets when everybody’s given up and said, “Well, that’s a sector that I don’t want to put my money into.”

TGR: With reserves going down, essentially we have a supply and demand issue.

RM: They have to replace their reserves.

TGR: Would we actually need a major gold discovery for the producers to come in and start buying? Wouldn’t they be in essence be speculating on some type of discovery?

RM: I think they’re very cautious. Liquidity in the juniors is very, very limited, so if someone wants to get out, it's not always that easy, and the same is true if someone wants to buy. There are not a lot of buyers out there. When it does turn, it’s rapid and you will see a 20% to 30% move before you can really realize what’s happening.

A lot of the juniors have brought properties into production that have disappointed the market. The cost escalation in the industry has caught everybody off guard. Projects are being finished, but they’re over budget, they’re delivering less than they promised, and so the shares aren’t performing the way investors expected. There has been a big disappointment when the promises haven’t been realized.

TGR: Is it the amount of gold that's disappointing, or the production costs?

RM: There are two elements, disappointment and economics. Say someone has gone way over budget; they’re producing less gold than they said there would be and at higher cost. So rather than reacting positively when they go into production, the market comes along and pans that story.

RM: Investors move on to a better story.

As Mr Bob said in a previous post, "the power of the pen" exists.

Mind you it's only one piece of the puzzle!

RUF



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