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Message: Changing Bandages...He..He..Huuuuu...

money=debt

debt=money

My take is as follows:

Bring debt from off balance sheet and from over the counter instruments into the light of day and you convert it to money. Money, which is being lent at an average rate of $450 billion a day this past week and there just isn't enough of it to go around. All that "silent" printing which has been going on through these sophisticated instruments is coming to market, and require dollars to settle. Demand for dollars is huge now, to settle these "bets", but eventually the demand will abate. Too bad that the printing pressess take some time to slow down..they still "want" to reflate to bring nominal values back. When all is said and done the tragedy is that the jeanie is out of the bottle, and there's no balance sheet left at the fed to put the newly minted dollars back in it.

The dot com bubble was very deflationary, albeit for a specific sector. It was "Highly acute" but the effects of the reflation were widespread. The credit bubble is systemic, and widely deflationary. However, the attempts to circumvent it are highly inflationary, which is, as demonstrated through recent history, the most powerful systemic force in economics. This reflation will be even larger than the dot-com reflation if current actions persist. How long until the deflation phase is complete and inflation shows up? That depends on how fast the printing presses go.

We live in incredible times, and it's really hard to be 100% certain about anything. That said, I'm confident that I know what comes next. Timing this bet is a fools game because the rules keep changing everywhere. Noah didn't build the ark while it was raining. Best get on it.

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