Production:
1250 t/d in '09
1800 t/d in 2010
250,000 ounces by 2012
Some of these numbers don't quite jibe. At an average head grade of 0.5 oz/tonne and milling 1800 t/d for 325 days out of the year, they'd be producing 272,000 oz/year. Adjusting avg. head grade to 0.46 oz/tonne gets us closer to the 250,000 oz figure.This is below your estimates, but more realistic, considering the lower average grades in the SG1 and Cartwright deposits.
Assumptions:
Exploration costs not considered
3-year trailing gold price of US$780/oz or CD$987
25 Year mine life
Average head grade: 0.46 oz/tonne
2008 Production: 30,000 oz;2009 Production: 150,000 oz
Steady-state production: 250,000 oz (from assumptions above)
93% Recovery, $1.5/oz smelter rate
These assumptions would result in approximately 6.4M oz being mined over the 25 year mine life.
259,464,101 shares, fully diluted
NAV/share:
$6.78 10% Discount Rate
$8.46 7% DR
$10.00 5% DR
A 79c CD$ helps, as does a high average grade. With silly (sillier?) grades like 0.6 oz/tonne over the life of the mine, you get ~325,000 oz/year production in steady-state and over 8.3M ozs mined over the 25 year mine life. Valuations rise accordingly:
NAV/share:
$9.90 10% DR
$12.31 7% DR
$14.53 5% DR