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Message: Re: full disclosure...D, we are still friends but...
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Re: full disclosure...D, we are still friends but...

posted on Dec 08, 2008 11:47PM

Slug, I'm disappointed that you might consider my previous posts as grounds for ending our friendship.

For arguement sake, can you identify where the regulatory body requires a production forecast be made and if they do, can you provide their definition of forecast. If it's anything like the defintion the weatherman uses, then a forecast is just a probability and at times highly unlikely.

No, I can't. That is beside my point, which is that SGR should have been providing its investors with guidance as to why they have continuously missed their production forecasts by such large margins. It's not a matter of what is required. It's a matter of what the market expects. The market has responded with a share price that is considerably under where most of those on this board believe that it should be (as well as much lower than the NPV of the company as I have estimated it). Of course, both the expectations of those on this board and my estimates could be wildly, hideously off. I think we can both agree that that outcome is less than desirable.

Also, how can they have "missed stated production forecasts for more than two years"considering the company has only been in commercial production since the middle of '06?

First pour was in August of '06, so - you got me. Two years even, more or less. They have not made a production target in any of their quarterly reports since. You're right in that the '08 numbers are not out yet, but from the information they have publically provided, they are certainly not on track to meet their number (which had already been revised down). So again, you're right. I guess I'm forecasting.

That said, I would be happy with anything over 12 or 15,000 oz for Q4, as that to me would show that they've definitely gotten the ball rolling. Momentum is a wonderful thing.

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