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Message: Midas tonight
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Dec 02, 2008 01:35PM
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Dec 02, 2008 03:11PM
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Dec 02, 2008 05:11PM

I think that a gold bull market comes along only every 30 yrs or so. We have been in a bubble economy the last 30 yrs or so and the next or present bubble will be precious metals. Base metals will come back eventually as the rest of the world continues to want to live like the west, but at this time are being sold off because of an apparent world recession. I think this will change once the de leveraging is over and coming out the other side will be base metals and agriculture.

The gold bubble or bull is not over and really is likely half way done...this can be witnessed by referring to the charts of the last real bull run in the 70's. There was a time that gold sold off and retraced almost 50%...many people that held for a few yrs sold off considering this the top. Gold went on to 850 dollars from the 400 dollar area and most were left out of the run. There are not any gold companies that are over the $100 share price at the moment and in the 70's there were quite a few.

example of gold stocks in the 70's inthe last 18 monthsof the bull.

eg....http://www.edwardgofsky.com/essays/D...

I started my research by going to my local library to look at old newspapers from the 1970’s, and wow did I find some amazing things!! My library had the financial post newspapers on microfilm all the way back to 1972 the very beginning of the last gold and silver bull market. I quickly went to work spending hours poring over the old papers looking for articles and stories on gold and silver to see if there were any similarities between now and the 1970’s.

There were a few articles about gold from 1972 to 1975 but the real big stories didn’t really get published until around 1978-79 and especially in January of 1980 the final blow off top in both gold and silver. What I really wanted to uncover from the old financial papers were old stock tables so I could see how high most gold and silver stocks got to in January of 1980 and from what level a few years earlier.

What I found was absolutely shocking. In 1975 most or all of the gold and silver stocks were trading under $2 most were penny stocks under $0.50.

Even with gold up 400% from the 1972 low of $60 to the 1975 top of $200 most gold and silver shares did little to make anyone notice especially the mass public who had no idea what was going on. It was not until gold bottomed out in late 1976 at $100 and into 1977 that gold and silver stocks started there historic bull market that would end where some of the prices for gold and silver stocks were unthinkable only a few years earlier. I printed out stock tables from 1975 up until the January 80 top and was totally stunned at what I found.

Let me give all you fellow gold and silver investors and people reading this essay who are thinking about buying some gold and silver shares a few of the many examples of the kind of gains that were made in the last gold and silver bull market a generation ago (before cell phones, the internet, and p4 computers) so you can have an example of the kind of gains we may see in the new gold and silver bull in the 21st century.

Lion Mines – 1975 price $.07 / 1980 price $380 YES that’s right it’s not a misprint you could of bought 1000 shares of lion mines in 1975 for around $50 dollars at 7 cents per share and held on for 5 years riding the wild gold and silver bull until 1980 where you then sold those same shares for $380 each for a total profit of around $380,000. Not bad hey!!!!! This is only one of many more examples.

  • Bankeno
    1975 price $1.25 / 1980 price $430

  • Wharf Resources
    1975 price $.40 / 1980 price $560

  • Steep Rock
    1975 price $.93 / 1980 price $440

  • Mineral Resources
    1975 price $.60 / 1980 price $415

  • Azure Resources
    1975 price $.05 / 1980 price $109

These are only a handful of gold and silver stocks that participated in what I consider one of the biggest financial opportunities in the history of human civilization. I don’t know of any other time except maybe the .com bubble where in only a 5 year time span you could have tuned so little into so much wealth.

Imagine buying in 1975 a handful of gold and silver stocks for under a dollar and selling them in 5 years for $100, $200, or even $500 per share as gold fever ripped through Wall Street. end...

So in my opinion the real fun will just be starting and we are close to wave 3 which is a very large wave up in my opinion although many will be bucked off the bull or their capital will be erased by the volatility we are presently seeing and feeling.

The second thing that keeps me in the pm shares and sector and leads me to believe that we are just starting the fun phase is the gold/dow ratio. This in my opinion is not the time to sell as we are presently sitting around 10 to 1. Going back it will show that the time to set stops is when the gold/dow ratio is down to 4 to 1 and heading lower....at 2 to 1 i will set tight stops and begin to sell off parts of my holdings flipping back into the dow or some of the general equtie sectors to ride the next run...

dow gold ratio...

There is a start and a finish in the commoditie bull and none have ever ended after 6 or 7 yrs which helps me to have the opinion we are just in the middle...the beginning and the end are important as even those who ride it to the end get greedy and don't get out in time...Everything between the beginning and the end is noise....very loud and sometimes frustrating noise but noise it is...

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