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San Gold Corporation - one of Canada's most exciting new exploration companies and gold producers.

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Message: from the other board

from the other board

posted on Jan 22, 2009 05:44PM

An honest and usefull post by blackcatbone on Jan 9th:

No problem, kamloops9. It's kind of refreshing to actually talk about SGR for a change.

I"m not sure how long you've been following this company but at this point the estimated resource all categories is 1.6 million ozs and is expected to be a minimum of 3 million ozs in the overall update. Depending on who you listen to, it might be as high as 5 or 6. By nature I tend to favour a more conservative/real/pessimistic perspective. Less than 3 million would be disappointing given the excellent results from the Hinge and deep in the main mine. Three million should be adequate for a TSX listing providing all other requirements, such as directors, are met.

Transparency, or lack of, has long been a hot topic for this company and is one of the areas which, although improving, is still somewhat suspect IMO.

There are lots of horses out there right now. Personally I'm diversifiying within the gold sector inasmuch as I've been picking away at several exporation and production companies, including ARZ, even trading the mining ETFs a bit. Longer term, 12-24 months, gold should assume it's rightful throne as the king of currencies.

The real question for SGR is not the asset. I believe, and they are proving, the gold is there. The question remaining is whether the asset can be produced in volume and at a profit. The company has set and failed to achieve production targets ever since recommissioning the mill in April 2006. This IMO is the major reason the SP has not reached the levels many have hoped.

These shortfalls, according to the company, are mainly due to shortages in experienced miners. This problem has apparently been alleviated by the shutdown of several base metal operations, allowing personnel to become available.

During first 3 quarters of 2008, under 10,000 ozs were produced. Estimates for Q4 are in the 10,000-13,000 oz range, indicating a significant ramp-up. This will not be officially confirmed until the Q4 report due at the end of March and the annual report at the end of May. IMO, the market is waiting for proof that the company can be/is cash flow positive. Jay Taylor expected this by the end of 2008 but it is doubtful that was achieved. Recent analysts reports estimate the comapnty to achieve this milestone anywhere from early Q1 onward. I suspect it will be the Q2 report due in August which will confirm an increasing production profile and indicate the company can achieve it's target of 100,000 ozs for the year.

There are two major financial events due in 2009 to keep in mind. There are approximately 15.5 million $2 warrants which expire in May. If out of the money, the company will not realize $31 million necessary to fund the operations until CF stabilizes, possibly resulting in further delays and/or dilution. In addition there are about 4.5 million $1.50 warrants which expire in June which may add to the shortfall by another $6 million. It's obvious the conversion of these warrants is in the company's best interest and I expect the 'big boys' to help in making the SP favourable to entice the holders to convert.

Today's SP is looking very strong with the turnaround in the POG but it will soon butt up against some serious resistence at $1.40. Breaking that with volume, the SP could challenge the $2 mark and higher. It's a matter of how soon this will occur.

2009 is a make or break year for SGR. If it doesn't happen this year, it likely never will.

This is, of course, AIMO.

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