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Message: Re: TD follows up
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Apr 09, 2009 06:27PM
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Apr 14, 2009 08:21AM
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Apr 14, 2009 09:15AM

Three snippets from the TDW report to add to hotmuck's post yesterday...

"As part of its update, the company provided:

(1) results from its sampling – apparently significantly positive, but we reserve judgment given a lack of description on its sampling procedures; and

(2) pictures of the mineralized zone from underground excavations – these we find very encouraging, and make significant changes to our model as a result."


"On balance, our estimate of corporate NAV5% increases from $1.81/share to $2.38/share and our target price rises from $2.25/share to $3.00/share at a consistent 1.2x multiple."


"Justification of Target Price

We generate our target price from the application of a 1.2x multiple to our corporate NAV5% which we calculated using a long term gold price of US$800/oz and USD/CAD exchange rate of $0.85. Companies that are expected to achieve rapid growth with declining costs in politically safe jurisdictions have typically commanded premium multiples. This is especially true of those with high-grade projects, like San Gold, which tend to benefit from greater exploration potential and lower capital and operating costs per ounce than their low-grade peers."

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