posted on
May 22, 2009 08:14PM
Credible source = oxymoron, certainly where markets or money are concerned! Black Swan logic, a wellspring of Nassim Taleb's experience, makes what you don't know far more relevant than what you do know.
IMHO, he, Taleb, has had an indelible influence on SAN management. What you know can be truly inconsequential. Black Swans can be caused and exacerbated by their being "unexpected." A la Hinge. A la a future TO or very significant SP spike! Continued discoveries offering significant WC results ("unexpected," of course!) will have the cumulitive effect of a handful of market shocks! (To the upside!) Regardless of manipulation by whoever, the unexpected will be our ultimate benefactor. You can put your head between your knees, but the time ain't right to "kiss your a$$ goodbye! (At least not on this one!)
RUF