Re: Finally a flash with reality
in response to
by
posted on
May 26, 2009 08:34AM
San Gold Corporation - one of Canada's most exciting new exploration companies and gold producers.
NO offense but i disagree, I don't think a takeover target is the end game.
I think us shareholders would be much better if SGR can be an entity by themselves. But in order to do this they will have to be cash flow positive and soon. By latest i say Q1 of 2010. If they are not by then, then financing will be eminent and dilution will be catastrophic.
On the bright side, I think they have time to get there s... together and have CF positive sooner. However they have been saying next quarter for 2 years now just like they have been saying they would release the 43-101 next month. This to me makes them look incompetent. I would rather have realistic expectation and realistic targets even though they are lower then expect just to prove they are competent.
Everyone should brace themselves for a lower then expectation 43-101. High expectations could lead to drastic corrections in share price. They are currently at roughly 1.5 MM oz, expect 0.75 MM oz for the hinge. That adds 7.5 years to mine of life if they do 100 000 oz per year. Also expect 0.25 MM oz added for the rest of the mine. That brings them to a total reserves of 2.5 MM oz with a 25 year mine life. And we can surely expect that number to double in 10 years and maybe in that time they might go up to 150 000 oz per year and a SP at 15-20 or more plus dividends (10 years down the road that is)
Don't be greedy folks, we don't need anything more then that. If someone told you for every $1 000 you gave them today, in 10 years they will give you between 7500 and 10 000. How much money would you give them? Nothing? some? Everything they could? Cause lets face it, if we don't get bought out, that's where we are headed.
Jeff