Dr. Doom's prediction U.S. will suffer Zimbabwe-like hyperinflation fuel for gol
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May 27, 2009 08:14AM
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Over the past year, I've occasionally mused mostly in jest that the way the United States has been printing money to combat the financial crisis seems to rival Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe. All this by way of wondering how it is that the result of running the presses has been rampant hyperinflation in Zimbabwe, yet the U.S. so far seems to have dodged the inflation bullet.
The difference, I point out, is chiefly that the United States can get away with it and Zimbabwe can't. But now comes a warning from Mark Faber suggesting that indeed, U.S. inflation may approach Zimbabwe level. The piece, which ran on Bloomberg today, is based on an interview Faber gave in Hong Kong. He said the U.S. will enter hyperinflation because the federal reserve will be reluctant to raise interest rates.
Certainly, fed chairman Ben Bernanke has never denied he would resort to running the presses: he was famously dubbed "Helicopter Ben" for his quip that he'd rain dollar bills from the skies if necessary. On Twitter, there a couple of fake Ben Bernanke identities that follow inflation and Bernanke.
One former financial advisor and financial writer takes Faber seriously: "Faber’s got a great track record. His prognosticative abilities are second to none. Couple this with his impressive investment expertise and I’ll cast my lot with Mr. Mark." I've interviewed Faber in person myself: he's dubbed Dr. Doom because he publishes the Gloom, Boom & Doom report.
It's certainly a sensationalistic prediction given that Zimbabwe's inflation rate reached 231 MILLION per cent in July. The Post also ran the item on its web site today here, including a package of other related Zimbabwe and inflation stories.
More fuel for gold bulls?
All this comes as investors are flocking to new exchange-traded funds that provide exposure to gold bullion. The most talked about one is GLD, but the problem for Canadians has been GLD and many similar investments are priced in U.S. dollars. That's why there's such interest in the new gold bullion fund from Claymore Investments Inc., which is hedged back into the Canadian dollar. As Barry Critchley reports on the front page of the FP today -- Investors cash in on Claymore gold -- the fund has quickly raised $400 million, making it one of the largest initial public offerings in the last two years.
Of course, those convinced Faber is correct could make a double bet with the Horizons Betapro COMEX Gold Bullion Plus ETF , the kind of leveraged ETF that FAIR recently warned needed better disclosure of the risks and investment expectations.
But if Faber is even halfway correct, such a trade could do well, as would some of the triple plays available in the U.S.